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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops were camped out on the Ukrainian border when early voting began in Texas on February 14, and while the conflict appears unlikely to influence Tuesday night’s elections, quick-moving events at home and abroad underscore the challenges facing candidates as the 2022 midterms begin in earnest.
The banner contest on Tuesday revolves around Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two-term incumbent, who filed a failed lawsuit seeking to effectively overturn the 2020 election, ran under a cloud of legal issues, with the possibility of more on the horizon, that his GOP challengers argued could endanger the GOP’s effort to yet again sweep statewide offices.
Polling ahead of Election Day showed Paxton with a commanding lead in the four-way primary but suggested he would fall short of the majority needed to clinch the nomination, which would send the race to a runoff.
The bigger question is if Paxton falls short of the threshold, which of his opponents — all estimable candidates with broad followings and significant resources — will advance to a potential one-on-one contest in late May?
The narrow favorite to set a spring date with Paxton is Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the latest in a political dynasty that, even with the Republican Party now in thrall to former President Donald Trump, maintains a considerable stature in Texas political circles.
Like Bush, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, who spent more than a decade on the state’s high court, is a relative moderate. The pair clashed in a recent debate, which saw Guzman question Bush’s qualifications and Bush denounce Guzman as a “gutter politician.” Of more concern to Paxton, at least as this first primary round shakes out, is the candidacy of US Rep. Louie Gohmert, whose ideological and geographic base overlaps with Paxton’s.
Texas was the first of a number of Republican-led states to hold major elections after passing legislation, on the back of a political wave set off by Trump’s long campaign to sow doubt over his loss in 2020, that complicates mail-in voting and outlaws other efforts to make the ballot more accessible. Some larger Texas counties have reported spikes in ballot rejections because would-be voters did not meet beefed-up and, to many, confusing new identification requirements.
As polls closed, Harris County officials warned of delays in reporting results, due to “damaged ballot sheets that need to be duplicated,” according to a press release issued late Tuesday.
The decennial redistricting process has also added to primary night uncertainty — and intrigue.
Cuellar’s district is modestly more Democratic this time around, but the race is, once again, expected to go down to the wire. And Cisneros, who has been endorsed by New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and was, like Ocasio-Cortez, recruited to run by the progressive group Justice Democrats, got a late boost when it was revealed that Cuellar is under investigation by the FBI. Cuellar has denied any wrongdoing and the specifics of the probe largely remain a mystery.
The signal to national Democrats from the South Texas showdown may be more clear, especially if Cuellar is able to overcome his legal concerns and defeat Cisneros again.
Republicans, including Trump, outperformed expectations with Latino voters in the 2020 elections and Cuellar has argued that his harder line on immigration issues, in a district that runs from the San Antonio suburbs down to the Rio Grande Valley and along the border to Laredo, is the only path for Democrats in the region. Victory for Cisneros — and, should she win, the makeup of her coalition — will provide new insight into what the shifting margins from two years ago portend for the fall elections. It would also reinvigorate a progressive movement that was put on the backfoot when Biden’s signature social spending bill flopped in the Senate.
While Cuellar’s bid for survival in the 28th District has captured the most attention, Republicans are also closely watching GOP turnout in other parts of South Texas, including in the populous areas along the border in Cameron and Hidalgo Counties, after stepping up their recruitment of candidates to run in a region that has been dominated by Democrats for decades.
Two Latina GOP candidates — Monica De La Cruz, who is running for the open seat in Texas’ 15th District anchored by McAllen, and Mayra Flores, who is vying for Texas’ 34th District, which runs north along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville — have captured national attention as they have argued that Democrats are losing ground with Hispanic voters in the region because they have failed to adequately address their concerns about illegal immigration and the dangers posed by Mexican cartels.
De La Cruz pulled off a surprising finish when she came within 3 points of dispatching Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in 2020, despite spending less than half as much as he did and lacking institutional support. She is running again in the newly redrawn 15th District, bolstered by the fact that new lines have made the district more favorable to Republicans, and with the endorsement of both Trump and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
The six-way race on the Democratic side is viewed by most as a toss-up. Some of the top candidates include Afghanistan veteran Ruben Ramirez, a lawyer and former high school teacher backed by Gonzalez; Michelle Vallejo, a progressive small business owner endorsed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren; and John Villarreal Rigney, an attorney and owner of a South Texas construction firm.
Gonzalez is now running in the neighboring 34th District, which became more favorable for Democrats after redistricting and where he could face Flores if she survives her four-way GOP primary. He attributes the GOP’s gains in the region to Democrats’ decision to pause most in-person campaigning during the pandemic in 2020 but has also been open about his concerns that his party’s drift to the left has alienated some voters. Democrats can restore their dominance in the Rio Grande Valley, he argues, by more effectively explaining to voters how the party’s social programs have improved their lives: “I think we need to get back to bread-and-butter issues as a party and not get caught up on extremes.”
The Democratic left will be closely watching returns from the state’s 35th District, a safe blue seat, where former Austin City Councilman Greg Casar, a progressive, is hoping to secure the nomination in a crowded field with a primary night majority. Casar, like Cisneros, was endorsed by Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez.
On the Republican side, a perceived lack of fealty to Trump has endangered incumbent Reps. Van Taylor and Dan Crenshaw. Taylor’s opponents in the 3rd District have attacked him over his vote to establish an independent commission to investigate the January 6 insurrection. The panel was rejected by Senate Republicans and effectively replaced by a select committee created by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But Taylor’s vote riled some Trump supporters and helped seed his current race.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
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