The Midterms Are Far From Over

They break down as follows: 52% Democrat, 6% Republican, 42% independent or other; 37% liberal, 51% moderate, 12% conservative. Whereas 45% approve of the Democrats, only 27% approve of the GOP. And while 27% have a favorable view of Mr. Biden personally, only 17% say the same about

Donald Trump.

The key battleground is the economy and inflation. Nearly 90% of these voters say, contrary to the Biden administration’s assertions, that the U.S. is in a recession now or will be in the next year, and more than 60% say their personal financial situation is getting worse. Around 4 in 5 don’t approve of the president’s performance on either inflation or the economy.

The Inflation Reduction Act is a risky proposition for the Democrats. If they can pass the package and convince Americans that its $739 billion in taxes and $433 billion in spending will live up to its name, great. But if the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation’s message wins out—that the bill is a tax increase on virtually all Americans—it could sink the Democrats’ chances.

The bill has also made headlines for dedicating record amounts to climate change, but Democrats should be careful: 70% of these swing voters want Mr. Biden to focus on lowering gasoline prices rather than climate change. Fifty-eight percent mostly blame Mr. Biden’s policies for high fuel prices, and 64% want him to reverse his stance and approve the Keystone Pipeline. More than half oppose the idea of bypassing Congress by declaring a “climate emergency.”

Democrats shouldn’t overestimate the popularity of the position that abortion up until birth is acceptable. Nor should Republicans expect swing voters to accept complete abortion bans. While 73% disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, only 48% say the reversal has made them more likely to vote Democrat. (And the electorate isn’t as permissive about abortion as the party: In the June version of the Harris Poll, 58% of all respondents favored restrictions after the 15th week of pregnancy, far earlier than Roe and Planned Parenthood v. Casey allowed.)

Jan. 6 is also a losing cause among pro-Democratic Biden disapprovers. A slim majority—53%—think Congress’s investigation and hearings are biased (up from 37% in June). Nearly 6 in 10 don’t think Mr. Trump should face criminal indictment. But they disapprove of Mr. Trump even more strongly than of Mr. Biden. Nearly 80% don’t want the former president to run in 2024, compared with only 71% for the incumbent. The Democrats can frame the midterms as yet another battle against Trump.

One good sign for Democrats is that the Republicans’ effort to paint them as elitists hasn’t totally worked. These swing voters skew young, lower-income and less-educated. Four in 10 of them are under 35; a similar proportion earn less than $50,000 a year; and only 1 in 5 has a four-year college degree.

Law-and-order appeals are unpromising with these voters, who care less about crime and immigration than those who already plan to vote Republican. Guns and women’s rights are their most important issues after inflation. Republicans should continue to make popular compromises on gun control, such as those in June’s bipartisan bill, and ditch threats of full abortion bans.

Republicans are stuck at the 50-yard line, held back by fears of extremism and of Mr. Trump’s potential return. To make any progress, they will have to double down on the economy and push energy independence over climate change to reach these struggling Americans. They will need to win the message war over the Inflation Reduction Act as a wasteful taxing-and-spending spree in times that demand pro-growth policies and fiscal responsibility.

The midterms will depend on whether voters’ fear of inflation or of the unknown wins out. Democrats need to stoke fears about what Republicans would do with congressional majorities; Republicans need to alleviate them. Democrats need to prove they deserve to stay in power by fighting inflation now, while Republicans can frame the tax-and-spend bill as the last straw.

Right now neither party is showing the discipline to execute a swing-voter strategy and both are playing mostly to their bases. The mystery of why Republicans have not closed the deal is explained by these voters who dislike the president but can’t stand the Republicans either. This group of younger, mostly lower-middle-income moderates will determine if the 2022 midterms are a blowout or a squeaker. They remain up for grabs.

Mr. Penn, chairman and CEO of the Stagwell Group and chairman of the Harris Poll, was chief strategist on Bill Clinton’s 1996 presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton’s 2000 Senate campaign, and Mrs. Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign.