Russia: what happens now that it claims to have won farce referendums in Ukraine

The Russia intends annex occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine on 4 October 2022, trying to hide his imperialism behind the transparent facade of the referendum. Voting took place without any impartial oversight, under the leadership of officials chosen by Moscow and the Russian military, and involved the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zapoizhzhia and Kherson. This is the 15% of the entire Ukrainian territoryan area as large as the Portugal or Bulgaria.

None of the four regions in which the referendums took place is completely under the check of Russia, and Ukrainian forces registered further progress since they routed the Russian troops also in the province of Kharkiv. While in the provinces of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where the largest nuclear power plant in Europe is located, they are still in place “Hard fighting” as reported by Reuterswho have seen the bombing by the Russians of over 60 villages and towns.

According to reconstructions and videos released online, Russian officials and military even carried the ballot boxes home to home in many of the militarily occupied territories, where threats of report in case of non-participation in the vote. In this context, Moscow got the results it wanted, argued that the outcome of the votes brought results between 87% and 99.2% in favor of annexation to Russia.

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What happens now

The purpose of this sham consultation, stated illegitimate from Ukraine and the West, is to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive which managed to put the entire invasion in serious difficulty. By declaring the territories in question as part of Russia, Moscow can claim to be threatened in its own territorial integrity from Kyiv, fielding the hypothesis of an attack nuclear in the context of what would be presented to the world as a move of defence.

Based on what is reported by the Guardianthe Council of the Russian Federation will not call an extraordinary assembly to deliberate on the annexation, but will await the ordinary session scheduled for October 4, 2022. this choice could indicate both the opening of a space to negotiationsand the need for the Kremlin to take time to verify membership support inside the annexation.

If the Council were to approve the annexation, the entire military strategy would change in perspective “defensive“. Moscow could start hitting buildings again governmental and civilians in all Ukrainian regions or try to strike again Kyiv. At the same time it could hold nuclear exercises or even carry out tactical nuclear attacks to scare and damage Ukraine. At home, however, the Kremlin could close the borders or introduce the martial lawinstituting a curfew, arresting opponents, seizing property or opening internment camps.

The West declared the whole operation as illegitimate And coercive and the United States will present a resolution to the United Nations Security Council, to call on member states not to recognize any changes in Ukraine and to force Russia to withdraw its troops. If Moscow vetoes this resolution, the United States will bring the issue to theUnited Nations General Assemblywhich can take the place of the Board in the event of inaction.