Russia: if he was going to drop an atomic bomb, could we figure it out in advance?

This week, the NATO is conducting its regular and scheduled nuclear strike exerciseand, known as Steadfast Noon, to practice deploying fighter jets used to carry nuclear weapons. These tests, that they do not involve the use of actual bombscome at a difficult time, as Russian President Vladimir Putin recently suggested that the Kremlin could use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine.

US and UK officials pointed out that there are no indications that the Russia is actively preparing to launch a nuclear attack. And the signals that the global community can draw on to monitor Russia’s nuclear weapons program are solid, if not foolproof. Hence, the world would probably know if a nuclear attack was imminent.

Russia’s nuclear attack threats

Putin’s statements. Suspicions on submarine tests Belgorod and on the border with Ukraine. The reactions of NATO. What do we know about the escalation of atomic threats

The world watches Russia

“We take anything very seriously weapon or “nuclear saber noise”, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters earlier this month. But, she added, “we didn’t see any reason to change our nuclear strategic positionnor do we have any indication that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons imminently. “.

Similarly, Jeremy Fleming, director of the British intelligence agency Gchq, has declared last week: “I hope we will see some indicators if they start going down this road”, adding that there would be “good chance” to identify Russian preparations.

“In the Russian case, the arsenal is old and consolidated, just like the US nuclear weapons program – says Eric Gomez, senior fellow at the Cato Institute think tank, which deals with arms control and nuclear stability -. Russia is very involved in international and bilateral arms control treaties, which provide a lot of transparency. I’m not an open book – no country is. Everyone still has certain secrets that they keep. But if you can keep the sensors of satellites or planes pointed at key points, you can understand if things are moving or dispersing “.

As in the case of the United States and other world nuclear powers, Russian ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles are always deployed and in a constant state of readiness. Known as “strategic” nuclear weapons, these bombs are destined to hit cities or large industrial targets. The “tactical” nuclear weapons, which are of greatest concern in the event of a Russian attack on neighboring Ukraine, are smaller and intended for more limited attacks, particularly in battle zones. These bombs are also known as “field” or “non-strategic” nuclear weapons and have never been used in combat.

The boundaries of friendship between China and Russia

Just as it was previously argued that Beijing actually supported the invasion of Ukraine, it is now said to have dumped the Kremlin. Not so, the Chinese position has always remained (almost) the same. But if there is a risk of Moscow losing, it is better to stop in time

The movements to observe

Russian nuclear bombs are stored in military facilities and must be transported and loaded on airplanes or carriers to be used. Pavel Podvig, who heads the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces research organization, notes that the world community knows the location of the approximately 12 nuclear weapons storage facilities around Russia from which this activity probably originated. He adds that the United States have a thorough understanding of most sites because they have worked with Russia to improve physical security of deposits between 2003 and 2012 as part of an initiative called Cooperative Threat Reduction.