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At the moment, in Italy, its prevalence is 7%, but seems to be destined to spread more and more: We are talking about COVID-19 and of sub-variant of omicron Bq.1.1also known as Cerberus. This was reported by the European center for disease prevention and control (Ecdc), which on 21 October published a report on the data of the Sars-cov-2 genetic sequences and its variants collected from the international database Gisaid. According to the mathematical models applied to the data, the health institution predicts that by mid-November, until the beginning of December 2022, more than 50% of Sars-cov-2 infections in Europe will be due to Cerberus and Bq.1 , another sub-variant of omicron from which Cerberus itself derives, while, at the beginning of 2023, over 80% of Covid-19 cases it will probably be due to these two sub-variants, making them the prevalent ones.
The current situation
October 20, 2022 the ECDC has designated Bq.1 and its sub-lineages as variants of interest of Sars-cov-2or those variants, of which significant transmission has been found in multiple communities or clusters, which present genetic changes capable of influencing the characteristics of the virus from which they derive such as transmissibility, disease severity and ability to escape the immune systemto influence the diagnosis of disease or the action of available therapies. Bq.1 is a sub-variant of Ba.5 (also known as omicron 5, which emerged in February 2022 and which is currently the globally prevalent variant of Sars-cov-2) which has additional changes to the protein spike, precisely in the region where it binds to the host cell receptor, which could affect its transmission and response capacity of the immune system of people who have been vaccinated or who have already been infected with the virus; in particular, Cerberus, compared to Bq.1, presents a further modification in the binding domain by spike.
In fact, the US CDCs had already warned about the alleged increased infectivity of Bq.1 and Cerberus, reporting as In a monthin the United States, the cases relating to these lineages had passed from less than 1% to 11%. The same situation seems to recur in Europe: as the ECDC document reports, as of 17 October 2022 in the EU countries the variants Bq.1 and Cerberus varied between 0 and 19%; in particular, the countries with the highest percentages of these sub-variants are France (19%), Belgium (9%), Ireland (7%), the Netherlands (6%) and Italy ( 7%), but it is estimated that these numbers will increase very soon.
The future of Cerberus
Based on the data modeling estimates, in fact, it is expected that by mid-November until the beginning of December 2022, over 50% of infections from Sars-cov-2 will be due to these two variants and that the number will grow until it touches 80% of cases in January 2023when, presumably, Cerberus and its family variants will be the most prevalent. Scientists speculate that the increased growth rate may be due to the immune system’s increased ability to evade.
Cerberus mutations in the spike protein could, in fact, “give an advantage to pierce the action of older generation vaccines, ie those used for the three doses to date“, said ad Handle Massimo Zollo, coordinator of the Ceinge Covid-19 Task Force, and Angelo Boccia, of the Ceinge bioinformatics group coordinated by Giovanni Paolella, who collaborated in the analysis of Gisaid data. In addition, the variants present changes also to the N nucleoprotein, viral component used by rapid antigen tests for the diagnosis of coronavirus infection. “we consider them important because they may be undetected, or less detected, by rapid tracking systems (rapid antigenic through the use of antibodies against the old generation N protein) now in use to define positivity and track them on the territory“add the researchers.
The latter could become one crucial questionbecause, as the ECDC points out in the report, for an optimal management of the pandemic, EU countries must carefully monitor the spread of variants Bq.1 and Cerberuskeep diagnostic tests sensitive and strengthen genomic surveillance, as well as closely monitor the progress of Covid-19 casesespecially in people aged 65 and over – and the severity indicators of disease such as hospitalizations, intensive care occupations and fatal outcomes.
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