The Chinese rocket crashed in the Pacific Ocean, a narrow escape

The title is quite explanatory and this is the substance of the news, as another Long March 5B rocket, the same type that was the protagonist of previous episodes of the same tenor, crashed on Earth in a position that before the event was impossible to to define. This is yet another uncontrolled return of a booster by China, but luckily everything has been resolved in the best way.

How did we come to such a situation again? The reason is quite simple. On October 31, the China Manned Space Agency (CSMA) launched the third e last module of the Tiangong space station, called Mengtian, as a payload of a Long March 5B rocket. Like previous operations, the Chinese space agency did not perform a controlled deorbitation of the rocket’s central stage after its payload was deployed. This means that, once again, a Chinese rocket body weighing 23 tons and the size of a 10-story building will crash to Earth.

Let’s face it right away, it won’t come with all its mass to Earth and much of it will burn in the atmospherehowever some debris could push up to the surface and as mentioned in the opening, for now we cannot calculate a possible position with precision.

This is according to the forecasts of Aerospace Corporation, which does not hide a certain indignation for this new event, expressed by the words of Ted Muelhaupt, a high-level consultant who works with the company.

“For those who have monitored previous versions of this: here we go again. […] Uncertainty about where large debris will eventually land presents a level of risk to human safety and property damage that is well above commonly accepted thresholds. “

We have also taken similar risks in the past, starting in 2020 when the first stage of the same rocket was deliberately dropped towards Earth after taking a space capsule into orbit. In that case the debris arrived on West Africa. Same fate a few months ago when another Long March-5B first stage rocketwhich took off on July 24 to bring the module into space Wentian of the Tiangong space station, crashed in the eastern part of the Indian Ocean, between Malaysia and Indonesia. But there was also another one in 2021, so the precedents are becoming too numerous and this is not liked by NASA and other space agencies.

In the next two days, we can expect more precise calculations and a probable reduction of the time window, as its trajectory will allow us to establish the areas most at risk with greater certainty. However, we know that the atmospheric reentry should take place within a window of 28 hours, which as for our time zone it will open on Friday after 2 am, to extend until Saturday.

The main problem in cases like these is that once atmospheric reentry has begun it is almost impossible to predict the area of ​​impact with absolute accuracy, as rockets of this magnitude can leave behind trails of debris up to hundreds of kilometers long. The last time one of these depleted boosters landed on Earth at the end of July, the fragments were found in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Aside from some damage to the structures, fortunately, the falling space junk has not caused any personal injury to date. And as always, on similar occasions it is good not to be alarmed and remember that the chances of the fragments reaching our heads are very low. The debris will almost certainly end up in the sea or in sparsely populated rural areashowever, it is good and right to monitor everything, since possible damage to people or things cannot be 100% excluded.

At the moment, the potential flight path covers a rather large area, and as can be seen from the image shared by Aerospace Corporation, it passes through the United States, China, India, Southern Europe, South America, Africa and Australia. Looking at Europe, the only countries that can be said to be completely safe are those with the latitude of France or higher, while Italy appears to be divided in two, with greater risks for the southern regions.

We will follow the developments and update the news as soon as new data becomes available, but we invite everyone to calm down since the percentages of involvement for our country are at the moment infinitely low.

04/11

All is well that ends well. The space debris of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket (a 23-ton booster) ended up safely in the south-central Pacific Ocean after alerting the entire globe to the possible repercussions of a disastrous fall in inhabited areas.

The stadium was used to launch the third and final module of the Chinese space station Tiangong, and as on previous occasions the Chinese space agency had failed to control the rocket’s exit from Earth orbit, putting several areas of the globe at risk. Italy included.

Fortunately, the huge body of the rocket fell harmlessly into the Pacific Ocean, as confirmed by the US Space Command on its Twitter profile. In particular, the rocket re-entered the atmosphere over the south-central Pacific Ocean this morning at 11.01according to our time zone.

#USSPACECOM can confirm the People’s Republic of China Long March 5B # CZ5B rocket re-entered the atmosphere over the south-central Pacific Ocean at 4:01 am MDT / 10: 01 UTC on 11/4. For details on the uncontrolled reentry’s impact location, we once again refer you to the #PRC.

– US Space Command (@US_SpaceCom) November 4, 2022