The Trump Liability for the GOP

Mr. Trump could defeat

Joe Biden,

but Mr. Biden won’t be the Democratic nominee. If Mr. Trump runs and the Democrats nominate a competent moderate, such as West Virginia Sen.

Joe Manchin,

independents and suburbanites will vote overwhelmingly—again—for Mr. Trump’s opponent.

Connect Tuesday’s dots. Amid all the issues in this midterm election—inflation, abortion, crime, the pandemic, schools, climate—Mr. Trump made getting his endorsement in the GOP primaries contingent on one thing: agreeing with him that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

The Republican Senate candidates who played Mr. Trump’s rigged-election card to win their primaries included

Don Bolduc

in New Hampshire,

Blake Masters

in Arizona and

Mehmet Oz

in Pennsylvania.

Republican gubernatorial candidates who supported Mr. Trump’s version of 2020 included Pennsylvania’s

Doug Mastriano,

Michigan’s

Tudor Dixon,

Maryland’s

Dan Cox,

Wisconsin’s

Tim Michels,

Arizona’s Kari Lake and New York’s

Lee Zeldin.

There’s little doubt that embracing Mr. Trump’s election view secured the nomination in those states. But in virtually every instance, these candidates then de-emphasized both the 2020 election and Mr. Trump and ran more traditional, issues-based campaigns. Why? Because in a general election, a Trump-base-only campaign can’t win.

This column and others wrote repeatedly during Mr. Trump’s term that he had to expand his base beyond the narrow 2016 win. He never did. That made 2020 against Joe Biden, of all people, a close contest. Many of the Republican candidates who just ran on the Trump model either lost or are in whisker-thin undecided races.

South Carolina Democrat Rep.

Jim Clyburn

secured the 2020 nomination for Mr. Biden when it was clear the party would lose if it chose progressive

Bernie Sanders,

just as now the Republicans will lose if they nominate Mr. Trump.

Mr. Clyburn has already cut to the chase, telling

CBS

Tuesday evening, “We have to plan for 2024 differently than what took place in 2022.” He said, “Now does that mean bringing in new people? Does that mean reassigning roles? I don’t know. I just think that people ought to just be honest with their assessments.”

That said, compare the Republican presidential bench if Mr. Trump steps aside with the Democrats’ bench.

Some of Tuesday’s biggest victory margins were produced by GOP governors—Florida’s Ron DeSantis, Georgia’s

Brian Kemp,

Texas’

Greg Abbott,

Ohio’s

Mike DeWine,

New Hampshire’s

Chris Sununu

and let us not forget Iowa’s

Kim Reynolds,

an impressive first-term governor.

Each of these Republican governors ran on policy successes that elevated their state’s economies, schools and indeed personal freedom. Abortion didn’t defeat them.

Also on the Republican presidential bench with solid wins Tuesday were Sens.

Tim Scott

of South Carolina and

Marco Rubio

of Florida. The list goes on:

Nikki Haley,

Mike Pompeo,

Mike Pence,

Glenn Youngkin,

Doug Ducey.

All would be strong candidates.

The Democratic bench, meanwhile, is thin to empty. Vice President

Kamala Harris

won’t get the nomination. None of the 2020 contenders look like a winner. If I’m reading the Clyburn oracle correctly, their 2024 nominee, in addition to Mr. Manchin, will look more credibly centrist, such as Sens.

Chris Coons

of Delaware,

Mark Warner

of Virginia, Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema or Commerce Secretary

Gina Raimondo.

Each would defeat Mr. Trump.

Eliminate the then octo- or septuagenarian Messrs. Biden and Trump from 2024, and the next-generation names listed here would give the divided and disgruntled American electorate the issues-based presidential campaign they want.

From this perspective, America’s voters just did the Republicans a favor by producing a red ripple. (I said I’d eat crow if there was no red wave. The bird is basting.)

All those close Senate and House results show that registered Republican and Democratic voters remain locked in. No one proved that more than

John Fetterman

in Pennsylvania. There will be no margin for error in 2024. If we have learned anything about recent U.S. politics, it is that if Mr. Trump is on the ballot, Democratic turnout will skyrocket. The coalition behind the Trump 2016 surge—from solid center to far right—has dissipated.

As to the Trump base itself, any of the substantial economic or cultural concerns that affect them, rather than Mr. Trump alone, will animate the 2024 campaign. They have to decide whether this is about them or him.

For those who prefer utterly antiseptic political analysis, Tuesday produced something for you, too. One betting site, ElectionBettingOdds.com, on Wednesday afternoon had Ron DeSantis’s odds of securing the 2024 nomination rising by 13 points to 37.9% and Mr. Trump’s falling 19 points to 37.5%.

Tuesday was a reality check, for anyone willing to see it.

Write henninger@wsj.com.