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Labour says Sunak’s promises mostly ‘so easy it would be difficult not to achieve them’
The Labour party says the five Rishi Sunak promises will mostly be easy for him to achieve. In a press notice it says the pledges are “all things that were happening anyway; are so easy it would be difficult not to achieve them; or are aimed at fixing problems of the Tories’ own making”.
Here is the Labour party analysis. It is quite long, but I can’t find it online, so I will post it in full here.
PROMISE ONE: “We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.”
Reality: According to the OBR’s latest forecasts, CPI inflation in the last quarter of this year is already set to fall to 3.8%, nearly two thirds lower than in the last quarter of 2022 (11.1%).
The prime minister’s pledge is therefore likely to be less ambitious than existing official forecasts.
PROMISE TWO: “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.”
Reality: According to the latest OECD forecasts, the UK is one of the only advanced economies to not grow this year – so we could hardly do worse than we were. In contrast, our competitor economies like France, Italy and the US are expected to grow sustainably over this year and next.
The OBR expects unemployment to rise over the next two years, with 500,000 more people out of work in 2024 than last year.
PROMISE THREE: “We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.”
Reality: Targeting lower public sector net debt is an existing government fiscal target that the OBR already expected it to meet. At the end of the forecast period (2027/28), the OBR still expects debt to be 30% higher as a percentage of GDP than when they came to power.
PROMISE FOUR: “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.”
Reality: According to the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies, waiting lists were already set to fall in the second half of 2023. Treatment numbers tend to increase after the winter and the number of people on waiting lists is predicted to peak in the middle of this year and then fall providing the NHS is able to treat patients at usual volumes
PROMISE FIVE: “We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.”
Reality: Successive Tory prime ministers have repeatedly promised to stop the boats. Instead, their new laws have made the problem worse and the boats are at a record high.
The government has failed to negotiate proper returns agreements and their own impact assessments show the Rwanda plan won’t work. They said the Nationality and Borders Act would stop the boats – it didn’t work either. We need real action to stop the criminal gangs at source.
Key events
Filters BETA
Rishi Sunak only mentioned the word Brexit once in his speech, even though leaving the EU is by far the most consequential thing the government has done since 2019. Sunak voted leave in 2016 but, like many Brexiters, he may be eager to change the subject in the light of polling evidence showing that Brexit is increasingly seen as a mistake.
But he did talk about the potential benefits of Brexit in the Q&A. He was responding to a question about whether the government was really determined to go ahead with setting the end of this year as the deadline for when most retained EU regulations will automatically expire, unless a case-by-case review decides they should be retained. Sunak sidestepped this issue, but he said that it was important for the UK to draft its own regulations. He said:
In my speech I talked about the future economy that we need to build, and it’s an economy that’s built on innovation.
That is the best way for us to raise our growth rate, which is something I know everybody wants to see.
And a big part of that is making sure that we do seize the opportunities of Brexit, and make sure that our regulations are agile, that they support innovation and do so particularly in the growth industries of the future.
And that’s why the chancellor has talked about delivering exactly that, whether it’s in AI, whether it’s in quantum, whether it’s in life sciences or fintech.
Labour is repeatedly trying to depict Rishi Sunak as “weak” and Angela Rayner, the party’s deputy leader, has made that argument in her response to his speech today. She said:
This do-nothing prime minister is too weak to stand up to his party or vested interests. That means that from housing and planning laws to closing tax avoidance loopholes, he can’t take the big decisions to put the country first.
For weeks this speech was hyped up as his big vision – now he’s delivered it, the country is entitled to ask: is that it?
“Is that it?” was also a line used by Chris Mason, the BBC’s political editor, in his question to Rishi Sunak at the Q&A. Mason suggested that was what some people might think that when they heard what Sunak was saying about the NHS, and he asked Sunak to respond to suggestions he should be doing more to improve the situation in hospitals this winter.
Hunt confirms cut to ‘unsustainably expensive’ business energy support
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has confirmed that he will announce plans to reduce energy support for businesses in the Commons next week, telling industry leaders it was “unsustainably expensive”, my colleague Alex Lawson reports.
Reform UK to field candidate against every Tory at next election, says leader
Richard Tice, the leader of the Reform UK party, has offered a “cast-iron guarantee” the party will put up a candidate against every Conservative in the next general election, ruling out a 2019-style deal even if the Tories back some of his policies, my colleague Peter Walker reports.
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, says the Rishi Sunak speech shows he is “asleep at the wheel” when it comes to dealing with the NHS crisis. In a statement he says:
People will be dismayed that Rishi Sunak still doesn’t have a proper plan to deal with the crisis raging in the NHS. He is asleep at the wheel while patients are treated in hospital corridors and the health service is stretched to breaking point.
Families up and down the country are facing personal tragedies every day and this Conservative government either doesn’t understand or doesn’t care.
Ministers should have been working to tackle this crisis for months, instead they spent most of 2022 indulging in a Conservative party psychodrama. Now the whole country is paying the price.
Royal College of Nursing says Sunak’s speech shows he’s ‘detached from reality’ of what’s happening in NHS
Pat Cullen, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, says Rishi Sunak’s speech suggests he is “detached from the reality” of what is happening in the NHS. She made the comment in an open letter to Steve Barclay, the health secretary, released to the media. She said:
In the first week of January, many have come to expect performance challenges in the NHS. However, I am compelled to put on record that what is unfolding in England’s health service this week is far from ordinary ‘winter pressures’. Nor can Covid and flu be blamed for the current performance of the NHS.
In his speech this afternoon, the prime minister’s language appeared detached from the reality of what is happening and why. As far as the current NHS situation, it focused on false promise and hollow boasts when practical and urgent measures are required on the part of government.
Cullen said the shortage of healthcare workers was one of the main causes of the problems in the NHS. She said:
The responsibility for equipping publicly funded NHS and social care services so that they can meet the needs of the population lies squarely with the UK government. It is disingenuous to insist that these services are adequately resourced, when the evidence clearly demonstrates that they are at the point of collapse.
She also urged Barclay to reopen talks on the pay award before the next nurses’ strike later this month.
Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, says Rishi Sunak’s speech shows why Scotland needs independence. In a statement, he says:
This speech was an opportunity for Rishi Sunak to fix the Broken Britain that Westminster has created – to mend a broken relationship with the EU, to pay public sector workers what they are worth and to protect those who need help the most. He did none of those things.
Instead, the prime minister made five flimsy promises, whilst people in Scotland are paying the price of five Tory prime ministers over the last 13 years. Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and now Sunak have all made plenty of promises – what they have actually delivered is austerity, Brexit and a denial of Scottish democracy.
Sunak says voters will judge small boats promise by whether government is ‘straining every sinew’
The Labour analysis (see 3.53pm) suggests the only promise that will be hard to meet is the final one, on small boats. But a lot depends on what the promise actually means.
If what matters is the promise to “pass new laws” to deal with small boats, then that will be easy too. A government with a majority can always pass legislation – even if the legislation that is passed has to get watered down on the way.
But if the promise is about passing legislation “to stop small boats”, then it is hard to see Rishi Sunak keeping it. Previous legislation has failed to stop small boats.
When asked during the Q&A (see 2.44pm) whether he was promising to end all small boats crossings, or just reduce the number, Sunak said that ultimately voters would decide. He implied that what really mattered was whether people concluded he was trying his hardest.
He said:
Ultimately the country will judge … the country will be the judge of whether we as a government are straining every sinew to focus on their priorities and deliver meaningful progress and change on them.
Now, when I made a statement in parliament last month about small boats, I went out of my way to say this is not an easy problem to fix, and it’s not one that we can fix overnight and it requires lots of different things to be changed.
Labour says Sunak’s promises mostly ‘so easy it would be difficult not to achieve them’
The Labour party says the five Rishi Sunak promises will mostly be easy for him to achieve. In a press notice it says the pledges are “all things that were happening anyway; are so easy it would be difficult not to achieve them; or are aimed at fixing problems of the Tories’ own making”.
Here is the Labour party analysis. It is quite long, but I can’t find it online, so I will post it in full here.
PROMISE ONE: “We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.”
Reality: According to the OBR’s latest forecasts, CPI inflation in the last quarter of this year is already set to fall to 3.8%, nearly two thirds lower than in the last quarter of 2022 (11.1%).
The prime minister’s pledge is therefore likely to be less ambitious than existing official forecasts.
PROMISE TWO: “We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.”
Reality: According to the latest OECD forecasts, the UK is one of the only advanced economies to not grow this year – so we could hardly do worse than we were. In contrast, our competitor economies like France, Italy and the US are expected to grow sustainably over this year and next.
The OBR expects unemployment to rise over the next two years, with 500,000 more people out of work in 2024 than last year.
PROMISE THREE: “We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.”
Reality: Targeting lower public sector net debt is an existing government fiscal target that the OBR already expected it to meet. At the end of the forecast period (2027/28), the OBR still expects debt to be 30% higher as a percentage of GDP than when they came to power.
PROMISE FOUR: “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.”
Reality: According to the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies, waiting lists were already set to fall in the second half of 2023. Treatment numbers tend to increase after the winter and the number of people on waiting lists is predicted to peak in the middle of this year and then fall providing the NHS is able to treat patients at usual volumes
PROMISE FIVE: “We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.”
Reality: Successive Tory prime ministers have repeatedly promised to stop the boats. Instead, their new laws have made the problem worse and the boats are at a record high.
The government has failed to negotiate proper returns agreements and their own impact assessments show the Rwanda plan won’t work. They said the Nationality and Borders Act would stop the boats – it didn’t work either. We need real action to stop the criminal gangs at source.
Sunak’s five promises – verdict from Twitter commentariat
I have already posted an assessment from Chris Giles of the FT of the three economic promises made by Rishi Sunak in his speech today. (See 3.13pm.) This is what journalists and commentators are saying about the promises as a whole.
The general view is that they are less impressive, and more ambiguous, than Sunak implied.
From Ed Conway, Sky’s economics editor
From the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire
Sunak’s “no tricks, no ambiguity 5 promises are vague and a con with only one timetable
Halve inflation – this year but still relatively high
Grow the economy – BoE forecast long recession
Reduce debt – not again
Cut waiting lists – when/how much?
Stop the boats – can’t/won’t— Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) January 4, 2023
From Sky’s Beth Rigby
PM five promises
1/ we will halve inflation
2/ we will grow economy
3/ national debt falling
4/ NHS waiting lists will fall
5/ new laws to stop small boats
We will achieve or not > First 3 already predicted to happen— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) January 4, 2023
Gary Gibbon asks a good Q. Are the promises for this year?
PM: On the five point plan – inflation 2023, economy growing by end of year
Debt falling plans already in place
NHS waiting times – no hard deadline, but staggered targets— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) January 4, 2023
From my colleague Heather Stewart
GDP fell in Q3 2022. So we could have a fifteen-month-long recession, then scrape 0.1% growth in Q4 this year and Sunak could say his target had been met 🎉 https://t.co/22JBh98kRe
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) January 4, 2023
From TalkTV’s Tom Newton Dunn
Sunak’s five promises that he’s asking to be judged on:
Halve inflation (this year), economic growth, reduce debt, cut waiting lists, stop small boats.
1 and 2 largely out of his control, 3 and 4 doable with enough Govt will, 5 is a legal quagmire.
A ‘read my lips’ moment.— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) January 4, 2023
And there is the crucial political wiggle room: when pressed, Sunak refuses to give any timescale for each promise apart from inflation. Says he has “deliberately not put a specific month” on them, and even admits “many factors are out of my control”. Aha.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) January 4, 2023
From Channel 4 News’ Krishnan Guru-Murthy
Rishi Sunak says judge him on 5 pledges : to halve inflation, grow GDP, reduce debt, cut NHS waiting lists and stop the boats. But does he get to decide what he should be judged on? Voters might well judge him and his party on strikes, inequality, competence, chaos, Brexit, etc. pic.twitter.com/9Weq7P9ZTI
— Krishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) January 4, 2023
From Jon Sopel from the News Agents podcast
Hang on. Rishi Sunak says unambiguous about 5 objectives, but some of these things are so complex, he acknowledges, can’t set a timescale when they’ll be achieved by.
So hold us to account – err – at some undetermined point in the future, over a couple of horizons— Jon Sopel (@jonsopel) January 4, 2023
From the Daily Mirror’s Dan Bloom
SNAP ANALYSIS: Rishi Sunak’s 5 ‘promises’ for what could be his final year – and how it may all go wrong
PM is promising ‘no tricks, no ambiguity’. Yet at first glance, his five promises for 2023 sound pretty vague:https://t.co/wANcWGWb9P
— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) January 4, 2023
From Shaun Lintern, health editor at the Sunday Times
Sunak has pledged to cut waiting lists by sprint next year – this was already a government commitment – so he offers nothing new. Focusing on elective care at a time when A&Es are an absolute bin fire is also an interesting stance.
— Shaun Lintern (@ShaunLintern) January 4, 2023
These are from Chris Giles, economics editor at the Financial Times, on the three economic promises made by Rishi Sunak. Giles says they are “a bit underwhelming”.
Sunak promises action on growth and waiting lists https://t.co/la6SN5zQC0
The 3 econ pledges are to
– halve inflation this year
– grow the economy
– get debt falling by 2024-251/
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) January 4, 2023
Everyone expects inflation to halve this year – even if it is still problematic by the end of the year it’ll halve (almost certainly)
Getting growth by end 2024 is a pretty weak commitment (which is my reading of it as written).
2/
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) January 4, 2023
Having growth over this parliament is harder, but OBR reckons it is more likely than not. So not a stretch target. Also extraordinarily poor compared with other parliaments
Debt falling is also in the OBR forecast for 2024-25 – but this is due to known one-off BoE repayments
3/
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) January 4, 2023
The government’s fiscal mandate is to get underlying public debt as a share of GDP to be falling – this is hard to do by 2024, according to the OBR, and not at all clear from Sunak’s words that this is his target to be judged upon
So. All in all a bit underwhelming
ENDS
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) January 4, 2023
Rishi Sunak (or, rather, his media team) have put this out on Twitter summing up his five pledges.
As your Prime Minister you need to know what my focus will be, so you can hold me to account directly on whether it is delivered.
These are my five promises 👇 pic.twitter.com/XyXrlMshdG
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) January 4, 2023
Q: Why is more legislation necessary to deal with small boats when the government has just passed the Nationality and Borders Act? Is that an admission that did not work?
Sunak says his view is that new legislation is needed. That is what he will introduce in due course, he says.
And that’s it. The Q&A is over.
Q: Will you set up another offshore processing centre like Rwanda for asylum seekers?
(Rwanda is not really a processing centre, because asylum seekers will not have their applications to seek asylum in the UK processed there. They will be sent there and told to apply for asylum in Rwanda.)
Sunak says Rwanda is important, but he won’t say if the government is negotiating a similar agreement with another country.
But he does say he wants to see more returns agreements negotiated with other countries.
Q: Are you really saying there is no more money for the NHS?
Sunak says he is saying various things. The first is thank you. He has seen how hard healthcare staff work. He saw it with his parents.
And the government has found more money for health and social care, he says.
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