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Key events
The air alert that started earlier in Ukraine has ended. It lasted around one hour and fifty minutes. There are no reports of any strikes materialising.
Esther Addley
My colleague Esther Addley has been speaking to some Ukrainian refugees who have come to the UK and set up businesses:
For Nataliia Horbenko, moving to north London from Kyiv last year to set up a business in Britain was her contribution to the war effort. “I am a soldier, not at the frontline of the war, but at the economic front. My aim is to increase the economy of my homeland of Ukraine, and I think I could be successful in this task.”
Back home she was a logistics manager in a transport company and she speaks passionately (“I belong to business – I like logistics”) about the opportunity she saw to do her bit.
“We [Ukrainians] needed to make a decision and be very brave, but we had no choice,” she said. “We need to keep our minds very clear, be focused and do what we are good at. I’m good at logistics. So why couldn’t I help my Ukraine and also be helpful for your country by paying taxes here? It will be mutual cooperation.”
Read more here: ‘We live in the here and now’ – Ukrainian refugees starting businesses in the UK
Germany has signed contracts with Rheinmetall to restart the production of ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft guns it has delivered to Kyiv, the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said on Tuesday.
“We will quickly start our own production of Gepard ammunition at Rheinmetall. I am very happy we have been able to guarantee the delivery of this important part of air defence,” Reuters reports Pistorius said before a meeting with Nato ministers in Brussels.
Russia’s state-owned Tass news agency is reporting claims that yesterday Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in the Kherson region. It quotes emergency services in the Russian-held portion of occupied Kherson saying:
Yesterday, artillery fire destroyed a warehouse with ammunition near the village of Antonivka. Four vehicles were destroyed, the losses of the Armed Forces amounted to 15 people dead and 12 wounded.
The claim has not been independently verified. Kherson is one of the four regions of Ukraine that the Russian Federation claimed to annex late last year.
With the first anniversary of Russia’s attack on Ukraine rapidly approaching, Agence France-Presse has gathered together a series of statistics about the war so far:
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According to the latest estimates from Norway, the conflict has wounded or killed 180,000 Russian soldiers and 100,000 Ukrainian troops. Other western sources estimate the war has caused 150,000 casualties on each side.
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In total, 30,000 to 40,000 civilians have lost their lives nationwide in the conflict, western sources say. In late January, the United Nations estimated that 18,000 civilians had been killed or wounded in the fighting, but said the real figure was likely much higher.
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Ukrainian authorities say at least 400 children have been killed. Kyiv also that alleges Moscow has forcibly deported more than 16,000 children to Russia or areas controlled by Moscow-backed separatists.
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More than eight million Ukrainians have been forced to flee Ukraine since the war broke out, the UN refugee agency says, the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the second world war. Neighbouring Poland hosts the largest share of these refugees, with more than 1.5 million of them. More than five million people have been displaced inside the country.
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Landmines are also a threat to civilians. Kyiv says 30 percent of Ukrainian territory has been contaminated with landmines, while Human Rights Watch accuses Ukrainian troops of having planted banned anti-personnel landmines in the eastern region of Izium. Experts warn demining could take decades.
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Around 65,000 suspected war crimes have been reported throughout the war, the European Union’s justice commissioner Didier Reynders says. UN investigators have accused Russia of committing war crimes on a “massive scale” in Ukraine including bombings, executions, torture and sexual violence.
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The “active” frontline runs north to south along 1,500 km (900 miles) of territory, according to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces.
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The World Bank in October said it expected the country’s economy to contract by 35 percent in 2022, while the Kyiv School of Economics in January estimated it would cost $138bn to replace all the infrastructure ravaged by war. The war has caused more than $34bn in economic losses in the agricultural sector, it said in November.
Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne has posted its latest summary of events to Telegram, reporting:
Since midnight, Russian troops shelled the Kherson community five times, one person was injured. In the morning, the Ochakiv community in the Mykolayiv region was also shelled – no people were injured.
During the past day, two people were killed and three others were injured due to Russian shelling in the Kherson region. One person died and three were injured in Donetsk region.
Shipping and coastal communities around Ukraine’s major seaport hub of Odesa received a warning from military officials on Tuesday over the high risk of naval mines drifting along the coast and washing ashore.
Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of using mines off the Ukrainian coast, which prevents safe navigation in the region. The Soviet-made mines were anchored, but in a storm some of them could come loose and be carried by the current, Reuters reports.
“There is a high probability of naval mines breaking off their anchors and washing up on the shore, as well as drifting along the coast,” Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesperson of Odesa military administration, wrote on Telegram messaging app.
“Since March last year, Russia has continued to use anti-ship mines on anchors as an unguided weapon against Ukraine,” he said in a separate video.
An air alert has been declared across several southern areas of Ukraine including Mykolaiv, Kherson and Odesa.
Earlier, Volodymyr Litinov, head of the Beryslav district administration in the Kherson region reported on Telegram that Russian shelling in the previous 24 hours had damaged “the hospital building, residential buildings and farm buildings” in the area, but that “fortunately, there were no civilian casualties.”
Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine, according to the US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War.
The Wagner Group continues to disseminate deliberately brutal extrajudicial execution videos and generally graphic content, the group said in its latest intelligence report.
Russia’s Wagner group makes small gains around Bakhmut: UK MoD
In the last three days, Wagner Group forces have almost certainly made further small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora, the UK Ministry of Defence has said.
However, organised Ukrainian defence continues in the area and the tactical Russian advance to the south of the town has likely made little progress, the latest British intelligence report adds.
In the north, in Kremina-Svatove sector of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, Russian forces are making “continuous offensive efforts” though each local attack “remains on too small a scale to achieve a significant breakthrough”.
Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.”
Russia’s foreign ministry has rejected claims made on Monday by Moldova’s president that Moscow is plotting to destabilise the situation in the former Soviet republic.
“Such claims are completely unfounded and unsubstantiated,” Reuters repots Russia’s foreign ministry as saying in a statement on Tuesday.
Russia is reportedly promising its soldiers a daily cash allowance as motivation to fight, Ukraine’s military has claimed.
The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces alleged in its morning briefing:
In order to motivate the personnel for offensives, propaganda about daily cash allowances for participation in assault operations is distributed in enemy units.
In addition, an additional payment was announced to each invader for a kilometre of advancement on Ukrainian land.”
New Russian offensive underway, Nato chief says
A major new Russian offensive has begun in Ukraine, Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said.
Speaking ahead of today’s meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels, Stoltenberg said Russia was “sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities”.
I think the reality [is] that we’re seeing the start already, because we’re seeing what Russia is just now, what President Putin do now, is sending thousands and thousands of more troops, accepting a very high rate of casualty, taking big losses, but putting pressure on the Ukrainians. And what Russia lacks in quality, they try to compensate in quantity, meaning that the leadership, the logistics, the equipment, the training, don’t have the same level as the Ukrainian forces, but they have more forces.”
Bakhmut under heavy fire
The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is facing heavy artillery fire, according to local officials.
Ukrainian defenders who have held out for months are bracing for new ground attacks, Ukrainian military officials have said.
“The city, the city’s suburbs, the entire perimeter, and essentially the entire Bakhmut direction and Kostyantynivka are under crazy, chaotic shelling,” said Volodymyr Nazarenko, deputy commander of Ukraine’s Svoboda battalion.
The Ukrainian military also reported 16 settlements had been bombarded near Bakhmut.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked Ukrainian soldiers for “preventing the occupiers from encircling Bakhmut”. The capture of Bakhmut would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region and constitute a rare victory after months of setbacks.
Nato chief urges speed of military aid, delivery of jets ‘will take time’
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said he expects the issue of aircraft to be discussed during today’s meeting in Brussels, but stressed that Ukraine instead needs urgent support on the ground.
Speaking ahead of the meeting during a pre-ministerial press conference on Monday, he said support for Ukraine “has evolved as the war has evolved”.
In the early stages of the war Stoltenberg said there was enormous focus on javelins and anti-tank weapons before switching to the delivery of advanced modern artillery.
“Then air defence has been a main focus and now heavy weaponry; Strykers, Bradleys, infantry fighting vehicles, mortars from Germany, and also main battle tanks,” he said.
Referring to the contentious discussion of providing jets, he said:
And as you have seen from media, there is now a discussion going on also on the question of aircraft, and I expect that also to be addressed tomorrow at the meetings here in Brussels.
But let me add two things and that is that one is speed, urgency. Because whatever the opinion may be about aircraft, that will take time.
What is needed now is urgent support for Ukraine. So my top priority is to ensure that the pledges Allies have made for infantry fighting vehicles, for armour, for battle tanks, that are delivered as soon as possible because every day counts.”
Nato defence ministers to increase ammunition stockpile
Defence ministers from several Nato countries allied to Kyiv will meet in Brussels later today to discuss possible further military aid.
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said Nato planned to increase its ammunition stockpile targets as Kyiv is burning through shells much faster than western countries are able to produce.
In a statement published ahead of the summit, he said:
It is clear that we are in a race of logistics.
Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel, and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.
Speed will save lives.”
Stoltenberg said Nato partners needed to ramp up production and invest in production capacity.
The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting Allied stockpiles.
The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defence industries under strain.
We need to ramp up production. And invest in our production capacity.”
He also said he expected the issue of aircraft to be discussed, but stressed that Ukraine needed urgent support on the ground now.
Summary and welcome
Hello and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. I’m Samantha Lock and I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments as they unfold.
The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is facing heavy artillery fire from Russia’s forces, according to local officials. The Ukrainian military earlier reported that 16 nearby settlements had been bombarded.
A two-day meeting of Nato defence ministers is set to begin today in Brussels where leaders will discuss possible further military aid for Ukraine.
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said he expected the issue of aircraft to be discussed, but stressed that Ukraine needed urgent support on the ground now.
He also said Nato planned to increase its ammunition stockpile targets as Kyiv is burning through shells much faster than western countries are able to produce.
It’s 7.30am in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:
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A major new Russian offensive has begun, Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said. Speaking ahead of a two-day meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels, Stoltenberg said Russia was “sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities”. Nato planned to increase its ammunition stockpile targets and he expected possible supply of aircraft to Ukraine to be discussed. Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s use of ammunition was “many times higher than our current rate of production”.
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Ukrainian defenders who have held out for months are braced for new ground attacks, Ukrainian military officials have said. The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is facing heavy artillery fire, according to local officials. “The city, the city’s suburbs, the entire perimeter, and essentially the entire Bakhmut direction and Kostyantynivka are under crazy, chaotic shelling,” said Volodymyr Nazarenko, deputy commander of Ukraine’s Svoboda battalion. The Ukrainian military reported 16 settlements had been bombarded near Bakhmut.
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President Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked Ukrainian soldiers for “preventing the occupiers from encircling Bakhmut”. The capture of Bakhmut would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region and constitute a rare victory after months of setbacks.
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Ukraine’s top general and the top US army commander in Europe have discussed further military aid for Kyiv. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi from Ukraine talked to the commander in chief of Europe’s combined Nato forces, US General Christopher Cavoli, ahead of the Nato defence ministers’ meeting. “We discussed the issue of supplying international military aid to Ukraine and training our units on the territory of partner countries,” Ukraine’s defence ministry quoted Zaluzhnyi as saying.
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Ukraine’s allies have begun training Ukrainian troops on the Leopard 2 and other modern battle tanks. Germany started training Ukrainian soldiers on the Leopards on Monday at an army base in the northern town of Munster. Ukrainian troops are also being trained by Polish, Canadian and Norwegian instructors at a military base in Swietoszow, south-west Poland.
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Two Dutch F-35 fighters have intercepted a formation of three Russian military aircraft near Poland and escorted them out. The Netherlands’ defence ministry said: “The then unknown aircraft approached the Polish Nato area of responsibility from Kaliningrad,” according to a Reuters translation of the ministry’s statement. “After identification, it turned out to be three aircraft: a Russian IL-20M Coot-A that was escorted by two Su-27 Flankers. The Dutch F-35s escorted the formation from a distance and handed over the escort to Nato partners.”
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Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, has accused Russia of planning to use foreign saboteurs to overthrow her country’s government, prevent it from joining the EU and use it in the war against Ukraine. Sandu’s comments on Monday came after Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said his country had intercepted plans by Russian secret services “for the destruction of Moldova” – this was later backed up by Moldovan intelligence officials.
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An unverified video is being circulated on social media that appears to show the murder with a sledgehammer of a former Russian mercenary who fled the Wagner group while fighting in Ukraine. The clip is similar to one that showed the killing of another Wagner fighter, Yevgeny Nuzhin, in November last year. Wagner’s founder declined to say whether the apparent victim had been killed or not.
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The UN human rights office said it had recorded 7,199 civilian deaths and 11,756 wounded since Russia’s February invasion, mostly from shelling, missiles and airstrikes. However, it believed the actual figure was far higher.
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