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Government: UK banking system remains ‘safe and well-capitalised’

Downing Street has said the UK banking system remains “safe and well-capitalised” following the takeover of troubled Credit Suisse by UBS last night.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said that Rishi Sunak has been regularly updated on the situation by the Treasury and the Bank of England, and has been in touch with the Swiss president.

“Obviously it is good that a resolution has seen secured,” the spokesman said, adding:

“As the Bank of England has said, we believe the UK banking system remains safe and well-capitalised.

“We have a strong regulatory system and we have taken a number of steps over the past 15 years, together with the Bank of England, to strengthen that system.”

As covered this morning, the BoE said last night that the UK banking system “remains safe and sound”.

Key events

Shares in First Republic, the US regional bank, have tumbled by 15% in early Wall Street trading, just days after America’s banking giants agreed to prop it up.

First Republic, a mid-sized bank whose shares have been pummeled amid a wider banking turmoil, have dropped to $19.40, from $23.03 on Friday night.

The shares have lost 85% of their value in the last month.

Today’s losses come after First Republic’s credit ratings were downgraded deeper into junk status by S&P Global, which said the lender’s recent $30bn deposit infusion from 11 big banks may not solve its liquidity problems.

Wall Street has opened higher, as US investors react to last night’s rescue deal for Credit Suisse.

The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 332 points, or 1%, at 32,194.

Investment banks Goldman Sachs (+2.5%) and JP Morgan (+2.2%) are among the top risers on the Dow, along with pharmaceuticals group Merck (+2.6%) and construction equipment maker Caterpillar (+2.2%).

“Big Wall Street banks are benefiting from the Fed liquidy injections and the influx of deposits from former regional bank depositors,” explains Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

The broader S&P 500 index has gained 0.3%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has dipped by 0.4%.

Bank of England confirms shares should be wiped out before bonds

The Bank of England has confirmed that holder of shares in UK banks would be wiped out ahead of holders of riskier AT1 bonds, following the surprise twist in Switzerland last night when this didn’t happen.

In a statement, the BoE says the UK’s bank resolution framework has “a clear statutory order” in which shareholders and creditors would bear losses in a resolution or insolvency scenario.

The BoE says this was used in the rescue deal for Silicon Valley Bank last week:

This was the approach used for the recent resolution of SVB UK, in which all of SVB UK’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and T2 instruments were written down in full and the whole of the firm’s equity was transferred for a nominal sum of £1.

Under the UK’s framework, those AT1 bonds (which are designed to be triggered if a bank hits trouble_ rank ahead of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1), which includes common stock.

AT1 rank behind T2 (subordinated debt) in the UK’s framework.

The Bank says:

Holders of such instruments should expect to be exposed to losses in resolution or insolvency in the order of their positions in this hierarchy.

It feels a bit 2008-y right now on finance acronym levels.

But AT1s (which have been wiped in CS) came about in response to credit crunch to prevent bailouts. Bank of England confirming that AT1 bonds will get wiped out – or
“You invest in risky bonds, there’s going to be risk” pic.twitter.com/OmvfXspOZt

— Ashley Armstrong (@AArmstrong_says) March 20, 2023

A former European Central Bank vice-president has warned that Swiss authorities “made a mistake” by wiping out Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds in the rescue takeover by UBS, while preserving some shareholder capital.

Vítor Constâncio explained on Twitter that the Swiss authorities didn’t respect the agreed sequence, under which AT1 should be called-in only after equity was wiped out.

The battle of Cocos. Swiss authorities made a mistake with consequences and potentially a host of court cases. They wiped out $17 billion of Additional Tier 1 bonds ( or Contingent Convertible Bonds or Cocos).These were invented after the 2008 crisis to shore up banks’ capital 1/

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) March 20, 2023

Cocos are perpetual bonds (traded in the market though) that can be wiped out if the capital of a bank comes below a certain percentage around 6%. They earn a higher interest while alive and that was the incentive to get an easy capital equivalent tool without voting rights. 2/

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) March 20, 2023

Bank regulation (Basel III) accepted Cocos or AT1 as part of Tier 1 bank capital, as good as equity for loss absorbing. AT1 should be called-in only after equity was wiped out and the bank capital comes below the percentage mentioned in the AT1 bonds contract 3/

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) March 20, 2023

The Swiss authorities didn’t respect that sequence. Formally, equity was not wiped out to absorb losses, it was sold at a price well below market value. The shareholders lost money only because of that low price which is not a reason to bail-in the Cocos. 4/

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) March 20, 2023

There will court cases. The market for AT1 is about $250 billion and prices are now going down. There is the concern that the tool may have been destroyed. The ECB, EBA and the SRB issued a statement saying that the Swiss treatment will never happen in the EU. To be followed.. 5/

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) March 20, 2023

Markets are still digesting the weekend events and are showing mistrust about bank shares. Both European and US banks stock indices are going slightly down. It is now all about confidence and that means a lot of uncertainty, despite the strong banks situation. 6/

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) March 20, 2023

The big issue now is what CBs will do with interest rate policy. The ECB went ahead with a 50bps hike, despite the connection stated in its new Monetary Strategy between monetary policy and financial stability (slide). The FED will decide this Wednesday: nothing or only 25? 7/7 pic.twitter.com/Vcjlhn4QGH

— Vitor Constâncio (@VMRConstancio) March 20, 2023

Rail strikes: RMT votes to accept Network Rail pay offer

Away from banking, the UK’s RMT union has announced that its 20,000 members have voted to accept a new and improved offer with Network Rail covering pay, jobs and conditions.

In a turnout of nearly 90 per cent members voted by 76 per cent to 24 per cent to accept the offer, the RMT says.

The vote means the end of the trade dispute with Network Rail, following strike action over many months, the RMT National Executive says.

The RMT says the deal includes:

  • An uplift on salaries of between 14.4 per cent for the lowest paid grades to 9.2 per cent for the highest paid

  • A total uplift on basic earnings between 15.2 per cent for the lowest paid grades to 10.3 per cent for the highest paid grades. This represents an additional 1.1 per cent over the duration of the deal

  • Increased backpay

However, the RMT is still in dispute with train operating companies.

RMT general secretary Mick Lynch says that “strike action and the inspiring solidarity and determination of members” has secured new money and a new offer from Network Rail.

Lynch adds:

“Our dispute with the Train Operating Companies remains firmly on and our members recent highly effective strike action across the fourteen train companies has shown their determination to secure a better deal.

Fears mount over ‘inevitable’ UK job losses at Credit Suisse after UBS takeover

Job losses are feared in the UK after the historic sale of Credit Suisse to its bigger rival UBS yesterday.

Credit Suisse employs around 5,500 people in the UK, based in London’s Canary Wharf, which includes investment bankers, wealth and asset managers, as well as staff across teams such as technology, risk and compliance.

UBS has said it plans to run down the investment bank division of Credit Suisse as part of its merger plans, and it seems inevitable that there will be job losses in the City.

The former chief executive of UBS in the UK, Mark Yallop, told Radio 4’s Today Programme that the merger, and the chopping back of the investment bank, is likely to hit Credit Suisse’s UK workforce.

Yallop said:

“The two firms together employ about 120,000 staff, of which about 11,000 sit in London, and I think it’s inevitable that a merger of this sort will result in some further job losses.

“I would imagine those would be concentrated in the risky investment banking business at Credit Suisse which is partly the cause of the problems the firms is experiencing.

“And in middle-office, technology and operational roles where bringing two firms together will mean you can run one bigger firm, without doubling up the infrastructure needed to manage it.”

UBS has UK offices in London, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle Upon Tyne and Edinburgh.

Credit Suisse bankers will still get bonuses despite UBS takeover

It’s emerged this morning that Credit Suisse staff will still receive their bonuses despite being taken over by UBS last night in an emergency rescue to avert a global banking crisis.

Staff got the good news that their “hard work” will be recognsed, in a memo sent by management today.

The Evening Standard has the details:

Q: Will my salary and any bonus still get paid on March 24?

A: Yes. There are no changes to payroll arrangements. We will pay salary and bonus, where outstanding, as per the previously communicated schedule. In many countries, the bonus has already been paid out and we do not expect any changes for remaining jurisdictions.

Q: I am expecting a salary increase as of April 2023, will this still happen?

A: We will continue to honor our obligations and already communicated salary increases will still be effective from April 2023.

Q: Will I receive a bonus for my hard work through 2023?

A: We will continue to allocate for a 2023 performance bonus for those eligible. We are committed to treat all employees fairly, any bonus plan will be based on both business and individual performance.

Government: UK banking system remains ‘safe and well-capitalised’

Downing Street has said the UK banking system remains “safe and well-capitalised” following the takeover of troubled Credit Suisse by UBS last night.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said that Rishi Sunak has been regularly updated on the situation by the Treasury and the Bank of England, and has been in touch with the Swiss president.

“Obviously it is good that a resolution has seen secured,” the spokesman said, adding:

“As the Bank of England has said, we believe the UK banking system remains safe and well-capitalised.

“We have a strong regulatory system and we have taken a number of steps over the past 15 years, together with the Bank of England, to strengthen that system.”

As covered this morning, the BoE said last night that the UK banking system “remains safe and sound”.

UBS shares recover some ground

Shares in UBS have recovered some of their earlier losses, after European regulators tried to reassure markets about how risky bonds will be treated in future bank crises.

Having been down 12% at one stage, UBS’s stock is now down just 4.8% today.

This morning’s statement from Europe’s regulators, which appears to show concern that AT1, or CoCo, bonds were wiped out while shareholders took smaller losses, does seem to have calmed nerves.

$UBS bumped the offer by 200% from 1 to 3BN after it became clear $CS AT1 were zero’d.$UBS paid for the elimination of 1BN cash interest pa a 2x capitalisation multiple.

You tell me if that’s a good deal? 😂🤣🫶

— Gunther Steiner Capital LLC (@joelspadawan1) March 20, 2023

Italy’s economy minister surprised Credit Suisse shareholders prioritised over AT1 bond holders

Italy’s economy minister has said today he was surprised by the decision to give priority to Credit Suisse shareholders over bondholders in the UBS rescue deal, by controversially writing off $17bn of AT1 bonds.

Reuters has the details:

Speaking on the sidelines of an event in Milan, Italy’s Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said however that the impact of the Credit Suisse crisis on the Italian banking system was “insignificant”.

Some of the world’s largest central banks came together on Sunday to try to stop a banking crisis from spreading as Swiss authorities persuaded UBS Group to buy rival Credit Suisse in a historic deal.

The Swiss regulator, said the decision to write down to zero the Additional Tier 1 bonds would bolster the bank’s capital.

Oil is still down after a volatile session, as recession fears sweep the energy markets.

Brent crude is down 1.3% at $72 per barrel, having hit its lowest level since December this morning, while US WTI crude oil is down 1.5% at $65/barrel.

The Brent crude oil price

Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at XM, says oil could fall further if central banks continue to raise interest rates, slowing economic growth.

Pissouros explains:

The banking turmoil affected oil prices as well, with WTI falling to its lowest in 15 months on Monday as investors became increasingly worried that a crisis in the global banking sectors could trigger a severe recession that would further hurt demand for energy.

Another hike by the Fed on Wednesday could intensify those fears and perhaps push WTI down to the lows of December 2021, at around $62.00.

German economy heading for contraction in Q1, Bundesbank warns

The Bundesbank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany.
The Bundesbank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

Germany’s economy will shrink again in the first quarter of the year, the country’s central bank, the Bundesbank, has predicted.

In its latest monthly report, just released, the Bundesbank says:

“German economic activity will probably fall again in the current quarter.”

“However, the decline is likely to be less than in the final quarter of 2022.”

German GDP shrank by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2022. A second consecutive drop in activity in the first three months of this year would put Germany into a technical recession.

The Bundesbank also forecast that inflation in Germany is likely to tumble in March as high energy prices get knocked out of year earlier figures.

But price growth will remain uncomfortably high, the Bundesbank warns:

“That being said, the core rate is proving exceptionally persistent.

It could even increase slightly towards the middle of the year.”

Germany: This is not 2008 again

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz welcomes the action taken by Swiss authorities to enable the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, a government spokesperson said on Monday.

The spokesperson told a regular news conference.

“Chancellor Scholz welcomes the resolve of the Swiss authorities.”

“The situation is not comparable to 2008/2009,” the spokesperson insisted, adding:

“The German banking system is well positioned.”



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