[ad_1]
Key events
What is Antony Green looking for?
The ABC’s election analyst, Anthony Green, is already in front of the touch screen breaking down the key seats and trends. He’s told the ABC he’ll be looking at some regional electorates to start:
I’ll be looking for trends in the country because there are a couple of seats up in the North Tweed and the Murray. The National think they might be able to gain that. If it is close at the end of all that, we’ll be looking at the city. There are some seats in the northern suburbs where there are independents running against the Liberal Party. We have a band of seats in Winston Hills in Parramatta, Penrith, which are all at risk, and a lot in the south. We will be watching all of those seats because the more seats that fall, the more likely you get a majority Labor government. Or will it be a hung parliament? If we will not know the result on the night the could be a negotiation for weeks ahead.
Labor posters focus on leader
Economics correspondent Peter Hannam has noticed Labor campaign material is highlighting the leader Chris Minns and his leadership team, at least at this polling station in Balmain.
Australians don’t want ‘American style’ campaigns with personal attacks, Minns says
Earlier we heard from NSW premier Dominic Perrottet, who revealed he exchanged texts with Labor leader Chris Minns last night. The pair wished each other good luck ahead of today’s poll.
The text messages are being interpreted by some, including Weekend Today hosts, as a sign of a more civilised election campaign, especially when compared with what we’ve seen at federal elections in recent years.
Here’s the exchange:
HOST: “It’s been a pretty civilised election campaign Chris. Why do you think that has been the way? Why hasn’t it got personal like it has in other states and federally, do you think?
MINNS:
Yeah, I think probably because the premier and myself like each other and I think that there’s a common respect there. We’ve managed to keep that for the entire election campaign and I’m hoping it becomes a feature of, if not NSW politics, then Australian politics.
You don’t have to take the low road and you don’t always have to, I guess, land a low blow. We can have an argument, if you like, about policies and who has got the better ideas for the future of NSW. So I think it has been a good feature of this election campaign that neither Dom or myself have launched personal attacks. You don’t need to run politics like that.
I don’t think we want to go down that American-style democracy where it’s just a fight to the bitter end and there’s no decency among the people who are running against each other.
Minns: NSW needs ‘new ideas and new perspectives’
Labor leader Chris Minns spoke to Weekend Today earlier this morning about that Newspoll in the Australian, which projects him to win today’s New South Wales election with a majority of seats.
Minns said his team is not taking anything for granted:
Polls don’t always get it right. Not everybody’s voted. In fact, most people still haven’t voted yet. No one has been elected. So I can promise everybody who is watching at home today, we are taking absolutely nothing for granted. We know it’s the people of NSW that decide elections and basically polls, at this point, aren’t worth anything because people actually have to get out and vote. So we’re hopeful. We’re going into this election with a hungry but humble philosophy, if you like, but it’s up to the people of NSW and we’re fighting for every vote.
Minns was also asked if he and his team were ready to govern the state. It’s been 12 years since Labor were in government in New South Wales. Here’s his response:
Absolutely. I’ve got a team that’s committed, united and very disciplined. It’s run an election campaign that has been hopeful and optimistic about what’s possible in NSW. I think what’s required and needed in NSW today is new ideas and new perspectives. Because if we have same policies that we’ve had for the last four years, we will have the same results for the next four years and what people in NSW need at the moment is change.
Minns: ‘Feeling good, feeling optimistic’
Labor leader Chris Minns has also addressed reporters after voting this morning.
Minns was asked about today’s Newspoll, published in the Australian, which found he was “poised to lead the ALP into government after 12 years in the wilderness”.
Newspoll’s two-party-preferred result of 54.5-45.5 would represent a 6.5% swing against the Coalition since 2019.
He’s what Minns told reporters:
Feeling good, feeling optimistic. Now over to the people of New South Wales.
REPORTER: Good poll today?
There’s only one poll that counts. No, look people have to have their say and with a couple of hours to go, we are urging people to get out and cast a positive vote for change.
REPORTER: How many hours sleep?
A full night’s sleep. Absolutely. Thanks, guys.
REPORTER: Are you going at it until the dying stage?
Yeah, absolutely.
Perrottet makes final campaign pitch after voting in Epping
Dominic Perrottet has given some more expansive comments after voting a short time ago in his seat of Epping. He and Labor leader Chris Minns spoke last night, exchanging text messages and wishing each other good luck.
Here’s some more from the premier:
It’s a real honour to serve the people of New South Wales. There’s a lot at stake in this election. I will be working hard all day.
REPORTER: What would it mean for the Coalition to be delivered a historic fourth term?
It’s not about the Liberal or National party. Ultimately, elections are about our people. My team has the plan to deal with the challenges of today, but we’re all wanting to set up the state for the children.
REPORTER: The polling suggests that you have done a great job, you are popular. Do you think your baggage, in a way, is actually the Liberal party? That you’re popular but people are reluctant to bring in the Liberal party again?
Our party has been here for 12 years, it’s transformed New South Wales. We were the worst performing economy, the state had stalled. We’ve turned that around. We’ve built schools and hospitals, the motorways have transformed people’s lives. But it’s all about the future and where we go from here. I believe my team has the plan, the experience, energy and ideas to take the state forward.
Perrottet: ‘It’s a very important day’
Dominic Perrottet has made a few very brief remarks before voting in his seat of Epping in north-west Sydney. Here’s what he said:
I love election day. It’s a great day. Ultimately, it’s a very important day for people in New South Wales. It’s a privilege to be the premier of the best state in this country and my team’s got the plan to deal with the challenges of today, obviously New South Wales moving forward and setting it up for our children.
Reporter: Did the kids have a message for you this morning?
Good luck.
Need a quick catch-up on the NSW election?
My colleagues Mostafa Rachwani and Abhranil Hazra have compiled a very handy, easy to read, explainer for you. It’s got lots of information about how and where to vote, but also looks at possible outcomes such as:
Could the election result in a hung parliament?
With a larger number of independents running and hoping to hurt the incumbent government’s chances, there is a high likelihood the election will result in a hung parliament, with neither party able to form majority government.
Both Labor and the Coalition require 47 seats to win government, with the Coalition currently sitting on 45 seats, and Labor on 38. It is highly likely the Greens will back Labor to form government, but it could still fall short.
If both parties fall short, they will both need to enter negotiations with the crossbench.
The Coalition has technically been in minority government since 2021, when MPs John Sidoti and Gareth Ward moved to the crossbench, while Andrew Constance resigned and Labor picked up his seat in a byelection.
You can read the full story here:
Find your closest polling booth
The NSW Electoral Commission is here to help:
Peter Hannam
Australian banks predict another interest rate rise
Australia’s big four banks are forecasting future interest rate rises, ignoring bets in financial markets that the cash rate has reached its peak.
ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac believe the RBA will lift its key interest rate by at least another 25 basis points, based on economic data already released. Earlier this month, the RBA hiked the rate for a record 10th consecutive time to 3.6%.
Investors responded to turmoil in financial markets over the past fortnight by slashing expectations about RBA rate moves, predicting the next move would be lower, after US authorities rescued Silicon Valley Bank and two others and the Swiss government helped UBS take over the ailing financial services company Credit Suisse.
Investors expect the RBA to pause its interest rate hikes in April, with the next move a cut. Commercial bank economists are not so confident that the RBA’s job is done. pic.twitter.com/MSLJltdk6h
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) March 24, 2023
However, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and even the Swiss National Bank each lifted official interest rates this week, viewing the fight against inflation higher priority than easing the squeeze on their respective economies.
Australia’s main commercial banks think the RBA have at least as much reason to stay on its inflation-beating course given the relative stability of the country’s financial system. The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, this week said he was receiving twice-daily briefings and that “our banks are well-regulated, well-capitalised and highly liquid and are in a better position than most to deal with these disruptions”.
The democracy sausages are sizzling
If you’re out voting in NSW this morning, let us know what’s going on.
Voting under way in NSW
Voting is under way in NSW, with more than 4 million people across the state set to decide who will form government for the next four years.
By Friday close to a quarter of the state’s 5.5 million voters had cast their ballots, AAP reported, with nearly 1.2 million people pre-polling and 92,000 lodging postal votes.
The premier, Dominic Perrottet, and the Labor leader, Chris Minns, have campaigned hard in key seats in western Sydney, where one in 10 Australians live and could well decide the election result.
Perrottet is expected to vote in his seat of Epping, in Sydney’s north-west while Minns will cast his vote in the seat of Kogarah, in the city’s south, which he holds by a 0.1 per cent margin.
The premier is seeking a fourth consecutive four-year term for his Liberal-National coalition on a platform of responsible financial management he says would fund life-changing infrastructure.
It would be the first time the party has managed the feat since 1973.
Western Sydney ‘a tight contest’
Western Sydney could be key to the NSW election result today. As Andy Marks from Western Sydney University explains, there are a number of seats in play.
Here’s what Marks told ABC News a short time ago:
Election time is our time to shine in western Sydney, it seems. It’s always a tight contest. This time round, it’s no different. There’s roughly about seven seats that are in play. So its common place to see politicians on every corner. You’ll notice that a lot of the big announcements have been made in western Sydney, both major parties camped out there for a few weeks.
Marks said it was difficult to call who would win the majority of seats in western Sydney.
Polling has taken a battering as well, since the Morrison victory against the odds. It’s very difficult to gauge whether or not the polling is accurate. And also, this is different because it’s a bit of a street by street contest. Neighbourhood issues that are bubbling up as opposed to the big ticket stuff.
Share market falls for seventh straight week
The local share market has endured its seventh consecutive losing week as interest rate hikes and fears about the stability of the global banking system weighed on sentiment.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished the trading week yesterday afternoon down 13.4 points, or 0.19%, to 6,955.2, after having been down as much as 0.65% in the first 15 minutes of trading, Australian Associated Press reports.
For the week the ASX200 lost 39.6 points, or 0.57%. Its seven-week losing streak is its longest such stretch since nine consecutive weeks of losses during the global financial crisis in mid-2008.
Recent weeks have seen the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and the Swiss investment bank, Credit Suisse. On Friday shares in Deutsche Bank, another European investment bank that has struggled since the GFC, fell 14%.
Overnight the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points, a widely anticipated move after official data released Wednesday showed higher than expected inflation, with consumer prices rising 10.4 per cent in the year to February.
While some economists have suggested that the global banking chaos might prompt the Reserve Bank to pause its rate hike campaign at its next meeting a week from Tuesday, Tadgell said he thought it was “highly probable” that Australia’s central bank would again hike rates.
The ASX’s 11 official sectors were mixed on Friday, with five gaining ground and six losing it.
On Friday, NAB was the biggest loser among the Big Four banks, falling 1.6% to $27.18. CBA dropped 1.2% to $95.84, ANZ retreated 1.1% to $22.52 and Westpac subtracted 0.6% to $21.20.
Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our rolling news coverage on a day that will be dominated by the state election in New South Wales.
The election promises to be the closest for 16 years following a run of fairly comfortable Coalition wins. Labor, under the leadership of Chris Minns, believes it will end its 12-year stint in the wilderness but the Coalition is pinning its hopes on premier Dominic Perrottet’s disciplined campaign. The final Newspoll of the election pointed to a Labor win by 54.5% to 45.5%, a 6.5% swing since the 2019 election and enough to secure 10 seats. Can they do it? Here’s everything you need to know about the big day.
A constitutional expert has described the proposed the proposed Indigenous voice as a “safe and sensible” legal option, dismissing concerns that the advisory body would be too powerful. George Williams, professor of law at the University of New South Wales, says the change is “strikingly modest” and “should remove doubts that parliament is fettered or limited”. Our chief political correspondent, Paul Karp, writes today that opposition leader Peter Dutton faces a dilemma about whether to support the reform. Go with yes and he risks being sidelined. Back a no vote and he will cement his reputation as a wrecker.
The Australian stock market could be in for another sticky day on Monday after shares fell sharply again in Europe overnight amid continued fears about the banking system. In Friday’s session in Sydney, the ASX fell for the seventh week running and it was down by 0.19% on the day. Futures point to the index opening down 1% on Monday morning. It comes as Australian banks think the RBA will raise rates again a week on Tuesday despite the market turmoil which some have speculated might bring an end to the record 10 successive months of hikes.
[ad_2]
Source link
