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At the end of August, China instead joined the Russian naval exercises in the Sea of Japan, as part of the maneuvers Vostok 2022 in the Russian Far East. The exercise headquarters is located in Khabarovsk, just 30 kilometers from the Chinese border that was once a front of tension among what are now called “limitless” friends. Last Monday the secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev and the high Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi they announced a deepening of military cooperation by meeting in Beijing. But all the same Joe Biden acknowledged, after the many assumptions of the American media in recent months, that for the moment Beijing has not provided any military aid to Moscow over Ukraine.
On a commercial level, the continuous announcement of the “new” pipeline Power of Siberia 2, whose project was actually unveiled for the first time in 2019, however, makes it clear that at the moment there is no willingness on the Chinese side to take a further step. And this awareness seems to have irritated the Kremlin in the last months. In particular, between June and July, when Beijing had restarted dialogue with Washington on the initiative of the White House. On June 15 there is the second phone call since the beginning of the invasion between Putin and Xi. A few days later the Telegram General Svr account, managed by an influential former Russian lieutenant, talks about tensions on the Russian side with Putin who in the interview would have expressed his disappointment to Xi for lack of support in circumventing Western sanctions.
In the weeks following the phone call, Russia stepped up its crossings off the Japan. On 1 and 2 July, three Russian Navy ships sail off the coast of Hualien County, east coast of Taiwan. The intention seems to be to show Washington total coordination with Beijing, also sending a signal to his friend “without limits”, bringing him closer to the crisis front. But according to several analysts and rumors, Beijing does not appreciate. The trip of the speaker of the US House Nancy Hairy in Taiwan he interrupted that phase of attempted dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which is now partially resumed with the meeting in New York between Wang Yi and the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
China’s strategic calculations
But China has no plans to dump Putin. Xi knows that even doing so would not erase tensions with the US and the West. But above all, in Beijing it is convenient to have a partner who is increasingly tied to oneself because more and more employee. This brings significant commercial and strategic advantages to China, which can import energy at discounted prices, spread the use of its own currency internationally and project itself as a host in Central Asia and in the future perhaps also on the Arctic. For the former Soviet republics, China now acts as the sole guarantor of stability, both in the face of “colored revolutions“fomented by the West, both implicitly in the face of possible actions by the undisciplined Russian friend.
Beijing strongly condemns the American approach not only for rhetorical purposes to be used on the Taiwan Strait, but also because it fears that Washington’s ultimate goal is to “regime change“in Moscow. If Biden goes to the ideological wall against the wall, Xi can afford even less a Putin collapse so as not to stimulate insidious equations. This is why China, which gains on a Russia committed to Ukraine to tie it to itself and ask for space. in areas considered strategic, the rise in the level of conflict is frightening.If there is a risk that Moscow will lose e Putin collapses, better perhaps to stop in time so as not to have to contend with a Russia that is not only weakened but defeat.
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