China’s military ‘will not sit idly by’ if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan | China

China has stepped up its warning against Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan, saying its military will “not sit idly by” if it goes ahead this week.

The explicit message came amid reports that the US House speaker, who began her tour of Asia over the weekend, may be arriving in Taipei on Tuesday and as China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was celebrating the 95th anniversary of its founding.

China’s spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, said that because of Pelosi’s status as the “No 3 official of the US government”, a visit to Taiwan, which China claims as its own province, would “lead to egregious political impact”.

The potential Taiwan leg of Pelosi’s tour is not yet in her public schedule. If she proceeds with the visit, it will be the first for a US House speaker in 25 years. In 1997, when the then speaker, Newt Gingrich, visited, Beijing protested against the trip but eventually swallowed its irritation.

Officially, Pelosi will only visit Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan on this trip. But Michael McCaul, Texas Republican and senior member of the House foreign affairs committee, and Democrat Anna Eshoo told US media last week that Pelosi had invited them to Taiwan. Both declined due to a scheduling conflict.

Pelosi’s trip comes at a time of extreme geopolitical uncertainty in the region. On Monday, she and a six-member congressional delegation held talks with Singapore’s prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong. The Singaporean leader “highlighted the importance of stable US-China relations for regional peace and security”, according to an official statement from Lee’s office.

In the run-up to Monday’s PLA founding anniversary, the Chinese military conducted “live-fire exercises” near the Pingtan islands off Fujian province, according to the official Xinhua news agency on Saturday. The Maritime Safety Administration warned ships to avoid the area.

Since reports of Pelosi’s potential Taiwan trip emerged a fortnight ago, Beijing’s state media outlets have intensified their criticism of US policy on Taiwan. In the last few days, Chinese diplomats have also repeated China’s stance, reiterating Beijing’s “one China principle”, on social media.

In Taiwan, speculation over Pelosi’s potential visit has been rife, with some sources suggesting she would land in Taipei on Tuesday and stay overnight. Taiwan’s government has not publicly commented on the reports.

George Yin, a distinguished fellow at the Center for China Studies at National Taiwan University in Taipei, said the US faced a strategic dilemma when it came to stabilising the Taiwan strait.

“On the one hand, the US needs to signal its support for Taiwan, particularly since China often portrays the US as a paper tiger who does not have the resolve to come to Taiwan’s aid,” Yin said.

“On the other hand, the US needs to reassure China that it still abides by the one China principle. Pelosi’s expected visit illustrates how difficult it is to strike a good strategic balance.”