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The updating of the data concerning the uncontrolled return of the Chinese Long March 5B space rocket. We recall that after the launch of the Mengtian module-laboratory on October 31st, the main stage of this heavy vector, after having reached orbit and separated from the module itself, began the re-entry phase towards the surface. Due to the design of this rocket it is not possible to carry out a controlled reentry and this means that they could potentially reach the ground debris after its destruction in the higher parts of the atmosphere.
The main problem concerns the mass of this section, which is approx 22 tons. It is therefore enough material to fail to disintegrate completely and this could pose a danger to the populations that are in the effective area of the come back in. Only a few months ago, with the launch of the Wentian module, something similar had happened. The main stage of the Long March 5B it therefore returned to an area between Malaysia and the Philippines six days after launch. In all three re-entries currently carried out with this type of carrier, there have been no casualties or injuries.
The data of the reentry of the Chinese space rocket
For the three previous launches (one for testing, one for Tianhe and one for Wentian) there was no harm to people. However, the risk was high considering that the debris arrived in the vicinity of some villages (fortunately falling into uninhabited areas) both in the summer of 2022 and in 2020. In the latter case it was the test unit, called Y1, with the return occurred in the area of the Ivory Coast.
In these hours they were released the latest information about the Chinese Long March 5B space rocket which launched the Mengtian module. According to Aerospace Corporation the return is now scheduled for 04 November 2022 at 12:20 ± 3 hours (Italian time). According to this model, the debris should touch the surface in an area of the Pacific Ocean near Point Nemo. However, this is still difficult to accurately estimate.
Marco Langbroek (which also collaborates with the Aerospace Corporation) has indicated instead a return always for November 4 but at 14:30 ± 4.7 hours (Italian time). This would cause debris to fall into the Atlantic Ocean area near the Ivory Coast, similar to what happened in 2020.
The Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC) instead indicated a possible return on November 4, 2022 at 13:16 ± 5 hours. Always another model, this time fromEU Space Surveillance and Tracking (EU SST), indicate the return on November 4, 2022 at 11:49:35 ± 223 minutes (equal to 3.7 hours) with an impact that could occur in the Indian Ocean, as occurred in 2021.
For those wondering if other nations can do something concrete to avoid this kind of problem, the answer is difficult. International regulation has stood still for far too long compared to the acceleration that the space economy has had in recent years. In general, it is not possible to prohibit a nation from throwing a Chinese space rocket as the Long March 5B even if it potentially represents a security concern. The Treatise on Outer Space it simply indicates that “space activities should be conducted for the benefit and interest of all countries, regardless of their economic or technical position”. Article IX is also not particularly restrictive in this regard, referring to some recommendations but not constraints.
As specified later in article VII “each state is internationally liable for damage to another State Party to the Treaty or to its natural or legal persons damaged by that object or its components on Earth, in the air or in Space […]“. This means that even if a space debris caused injuries or deaths, there would be no particular sanctions but a formal request for compensation, in this specific case to China. Also China could then request the components returned to the surface that would remain its property. In general, a review of all legislation and regulations regarding space launches at an international level would be needed. However, this clashes with both political decisions (and frictions between nations) as well as issues concerning the internal defense plans of the various states.
A prototype model of the Long March 9 space rocket (source)
It should be noted, however, that China through the CNSACMSA and private companies is looking to “change course” regarding the development of space rockets. One example is the Long March 9 rocket which could be the first reusable heavy carrier for missions to the Moon (but also usable in LEO). A new prototype was presented at the Zhuhai Airshow by CALT (state company). You can notice the absence of booster with solid state propellant and upper fins. His arrival is however expected shortly before the 1930s. Also recently a debris of a Y72 Long March 2D space rocket is mentioned in the Chinese countryside after its launch on 29 October. It is therefore a different event than what could happen with the Long March 5B (which is much larger and with greater mass).
Debris of a Y72 2D Long Gear rocket that fell in China (source)
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