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The incumbent rarely wins in Karnataka, where control has largely alternated between Congress and B.J.P. in recent years. In local elections, caste rivalries and immediate issues of governance, such as corruption, loom large. Local preferences do not necessarily translate to votes for the National Assembly in India’s parliamentary system, which determines who the prime minister is.
Mr. Modi’s popularity remains strong, with many voters in Karnataka — who voted against his local leaders because of rising prices, corruption and polarizing politics — still expressing fondness for him personally.
At the national level, the Congress has struggled to match Mr. Modi’s appeal.
Rahul Gandhi, the Congress’s most-recognized leader and often touted as the contender, built some momentum by taking a long walk across India, covering 2,200 miles over four months.
But just as it appeared that he was shedding Mr. Modi’s tag on him of an entitled dynast, and presenting himself as a credible leader around whom a coalition of skeptical regional allies could unite to challenge Mr. Modi, the B.J.P. bogged him down in a legal challenge.
An old and questionable case of defamation was revived in recent months, and the judge in Mr. Modi’s home state of Gujarat handed Mr. Gandhi the maximum sentence, which disqualified him from his parliamentary seat. Mr. Gandhi’s party has termed the case a political conspiracy akin to match-fixing, and has been fighting to keep him out of jail.
Aarti Jerath, a political commentator in New Delhi, said while the voting patterns in the local elections do not immediately translate to support in national elections, the Congress party will take lessons from its Karnataka victory — of empowering local leaders, and focusing the campaign on bread-and-butter issues rather than making it a popularity contest against the formidable Mr. Modi.
“This is a big morale booster for Congress — first win in a major state after a string of defeats,” she said.
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