Iranian Arms Deliveries Signal Bad News for Russia

Shortly after White House national security adviser

Jake Sullivan

warned in July that Iran was planning to supply Russia with “several hundred” drones, analysts at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime data service, began to notice changes in the route going from the Sea of Azov, via the Volga and Don rivers, to the Caspian Sea. The analysts also tracked 50 ships traveling to Russia from Iran in September, up from 30 in August.

In August, among all the ships traveling through the Caspian Sea, the analysts recorded 278 extended AIS gaps—periods when ships disabled their detection systems—of 30 hours or more. The following month, that number rose to 440, the most since May 2021. Along the Volga and the Don, there were 522 AIS gaps in September and 454 in October. The average for January to August was 147. In September analysts reported 60 “dark port calls”—when ships call on ports with their AIS turned off—at Russian and Iranian ports, up from 48 in August.

Some AIS gaps in the Caspian Sea, where Iranian ships are more insulated from Western monitoring, are likely indicative of Iran’s shipment of oil in violation of sanctions. But more-recent spikes, as well as the rise in number of ships going from Iran to Russia, suggest weapons. “They’re clearly doing it to hide shipments between Iran and Russia,”

Bridget Diakun,

a shipping data analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, said.

Occasional AIS gaps aren’t unusual in the shipping industry owing to poor signal coverage or bad weather. But vessels that repeatedly turn off their AIS for extended periods have something to hide. “Very often when a ship switches off its AIS, you know that something illegal is happening,” retired Maj. Gen.

Pekka Toveri,

a former chief of Finnish military intelligence, said.

Though Iran denies sending arms to Russia to be used against Ukraine, Tehran began delivery of loitering “kamikaze” drones to Russia this summer. Those deliveries coincide with the spike in AIS gaps; in October, Ukraine first reported attacks by Iranian-made drones.

But there’s a limit to how much Iran can help its friends in the Kremlin.

Vladimir Putin

will need a steady supply of drones, which are easily shot down. Iran has to maintain its own stocks, especially given its limited production capabilities. No wonder Russia is looking to additional sources for weaponry: The National Security Council said last month that North Korea has sent ammunition to Russia.

Mr. Putin failed to prepare both his armed forces and the Russian defense industry for a prolonged war. And now he knows it. In late October he chaired the inaugural meeting of Russia’s “coordinating council” for military supply and logistics, tasked with ensuring that troops get the weapons and personal equipment they need. This kind of planning should have happened years ago—military manufacturing is a lengthy process, requiring industrial planning and workforce training.

With winter fast approaching, the Russians could be caught in another ill-fated invasion. On Nov. 30, 1939, Stalin sent the Red Army to invade Finland, which received little military support from the outside world. Though outnumbered and underequipped, the agile Finns valiantly prevailed for 105 days and the conflict ended with a treaty.

Unlike the Finns, the Ukrainians are receiving daily deliveries of everything from ammunition to heavy weaponry from friends around the world. Without the same reliable stock, Russia desperately needs these mysterious shipments. And that’s good news for Ukraine.

Ms. Braw is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an adviser to Gallos Technologies.