Mortgage Rates Hold Mostly Steady at Recent Lows

Mortgage rates hit 5.5% last Friday for the top tier conforming 30yr fixed scenario at the average lender.  That was the lowest since June 8th, just before the fateful CPI inflation data that kicked off a run to the highest rates in more than a decade less than a week later.

Getting back to pre-CPI levels was a solid milestone for last week.  Today’s rates are no less solid with the average lender very close to the levels seen on Friday morning.  If rates can continue in a similar range for 2 more days, they’ll hit another milestone as they’ll officially be at the lowest levels in more than a month.  That’s a claim that can only be made one other time in 2022 (and the actual drop in rates was much smaller in the previous example).

Whether or not rates remain in the current range may depend on the economic data and other events on tap for the rest of the week.  Tomorrow’s examples include one of the most important service sector barometers (ISM’s Non-Manufacturing PMI) in the morning and the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting in the afternoon.  Both are capable of causing volatility, for better or worse.  

Ongoing disclaimer: As has been the case many times during the 2022 rate spike, there is a much higher degree of variation between lenders compared to more stable times for rates. There is also an uncommonly small amount of cost separating certain rates in terms of “points.” In other words, whereas paying 1 point might be worth 0.25% during more normal times, there are certain rates/scenarios where paying a point could drop a rate by 0.5%.