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Mortgage rates rose significantly to start the new week – so much so that you have to go back to last Monday to see anything that high. This is bad news.
The good news is that rates are in the midst of their flattest trend in a long time. This is true both in the broad sense till the fourth quarter of 2022 and in the latest/narrow sense till mid-March. Since then, the top-tier 30-year fixed rate hasn’t strayed far from 6.5%, despite spending time on either side of that level.
Today’s news and events were forgettable in the big picture – at least when it comes to rate movement. Sophisticated factors such as elevated corporate bond issuance may take the blame, but justification ultimately matters little if rates stay near the center of the prevailing range.
The biggest risk of a move away from that range in the near term will come with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday morning.
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