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For the second day in a row, mortgage rates didn’t change nearly as much as they were rising any other day over the past 3 weeks. This is a reflection of quieter trading in the underlying bond market which, in turn, is a reflection of the lesser quantum of surprise growth in the banking sector.
Boring as it may sound, we are really in a holding pattern unless one of three things happens: more banking drama, economic reports that paint an inflationary picture, evidence that the banking drama is actually having an impact on the economy. Has had a measurable effect.
Only one of those three things happens on a regular schedule. The other two are not only variable in terms of time, but they may not even happen in the first place. This makes the near-term outlook open to debate and highly dependent on unexpected news headlines. Otherwise, we look forward to the most important economic reports such as the jobs report next Friday or the Consumer Price Index a week later.
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