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For those who only want to wake up when mortgage rates make a big move in the 5% range or exceed 7%, you’re free to go. The most prevalently-quoted top tier 30yr fixed rates have started at “6” for months and it will take more than a day or two of fairly astonishing volatility to change that.
Such volatility is a surprise as the market closed smack dab amid a much wider debate about inflation and economic growth. The questions at hand will require answers over weeks and months – not days.
Inflation and economic growth matter to rates because they are the two most fundamental inputs to the bond market, and the bond market is the most fundamental input to mortgage rates. Today’s small jump (roughly .125% in rates for 30-year fixed loans) happened for no particular reason.
This is one of several similar pops and drops that have occurred inside a broad sideways range. Meanwhile, that broad range–the one that keeps top-tier 30-year rates mostly between 6 and 7%–is in place through September 2022. The longer duration of the range is a testament to the uncertainty about what happens next for the economy and inflation. ,
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