Plenty of Jobs Still Available on Main Street

Forty-six percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged from September. The share of owners with unfilled job openings far exceeds the 48-year historical average of 23 percent. Forty percent have openings for skilled workers (down 2 points) and 22 percent have openings for unskilled labor (unchanged).

Companies in transportation, construction and manufacturing are most likely to have open positions, but retail and services companies are also struggling to staff up. With few job applicants, the “percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 23 percent, up 1 point from September but still #2 behind inflation,” says Mr. Dunkelberg.

These days many Wall Street forecasters are predicting recession in the coming months, but the people who run businesses on Main Street are still in hiring mode. And they’re paying more to try to get the talent they need. The NFIB economist reports:

Owners’ plans to fill open positions remain elevated, with a seasonally adjusted net 20 percent planning to create new jobs in the next three months, down 3 points from September but still historically strong…

Seasonally adjusted, a net 44 percent reported raising compensation, down 1 point from September, but just six points below the 48-year record high set in January. A net 32 percent plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up 9 points from September. Far more owners are having to increase compensation to compete than are planning to add that expense. According to the [Bureau of Labor Statistics], compensation costs overall increased 5% over the last 12 months. But with labor demand remaining strong… firms must maintain competitive compensation to retain workers…. As long as consumers spend, firms will find it profitable to hire.

Across the economy, the U.S. continues to see a historic worker shortage. This week the Journal’s Bryan Mena reported on the labor situation at employers of all sizes:

Employers’ total job openings increased 437,000 to a seasonally adjusted 10.7 million in September from an upwardly revised 10.3 million openings the prior month, the Labor Department said Tuesday. September openings were well above the 5.8 million unemployed people seeking work—an imbalance that is putting pressure on wages and overall inflation.

Job openings peaked in March at 11.9 million and have since declined in four of the past six months through September. Openings remain elevated compared with a 7.2 million average in 2019 ahead of the pandemic.

Back at NFIB, Mr. Dunkelberg sums up the employment landscape for small firms:

The labor situation remains frustrating for many small business owners. The staffing shortage has limited small business owners’ ability to fully take advantage of current sales opportunities. Owners are adjusting business operations where they can with limited resources. While there might be a few cracks in the labor market appearing overall, employment remains historically strong on Main Street.

It sure is frustrating for owners, but for workers America remains the land of job opportunities. The hard part is finding a job where the pay rises faster than inflation. That’s a challenge for everybody.

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James Freeman is the co-author of “The Cost: Trump, China and American Revival.”

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(Teresa Vozzo helps compile Best of the Web.)