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We recently wrote about the problem of pressure loss (due to a hole) in the Russian cargo spacecraft Progress MS-21. This is the second failure of a Russian spacecraft in a few months, representing a potential risk for the International Space Station even if at present there is no danger for the crews on board. Previously something similar had happened to the Soyuz MS-22 capsule that had brought the astronaut to the ISS Frank Rubio (NASA) and the cosmonauts Sergey Prokopyev (Roscosmos) e Dmitry Petelin (Roscosmos).
Even now Roscosmos is looking for, with the help of the NASA, to understand what could have caused the two similar failures and there is no certain answer. Before the problem the Progress MS-21 was “point the finger” towards a micrometeorite that could have hit the spacecraft causing the leakage of all the liquid present in the cooling circuit. With the damage to Progress, however, things could have changed, but not necessarily. In the last few hours, the first photograph of the damage on the external bulkhead of the has been published Soyuz MS-22 taken thanks to the cameras of the Canadarm2 robotic arm (the latter had also been hit in the past).
International Space Station: the photo at the hole of the Soyuz MS-22
As written above, we do not yet know what the actual origin of the damage is Soyuz MS-22 and to Progress MS-21. Roscosmos he declared that the analyzes are in progress and that the holes could have originated from different causes. Despite everything, as a precaution, the launch of the Soyuz MS-23 which will bring Rubio, Prokopyev and Petelin back to Earth has been postponed until at least March 10, 2023 (instead of February 20). This would make it possible to carry out further checks on the affected areas to prevent the new spacecraft from suffering the same fate (in case it was a construction problem).
Roscosmos reiterated on his Telegram channel that “the presence of this opening demonstrates the cause of the accident: external damage” as for the Soyuz MS-22 still docked at International Space Station. Yuri Borisov (Roscosmos general manager) also stated that it is currently not possible to perform a direct analysis of the damage to Progress MS-21 and this therefore does not allow to have a precise idea of what happened.
Borisov he has declared “we are taking measures that could allow us to photograph the place where the surface of the spacecraft was apparently damaged. If there are traces of damage, then it can be assumed that there was an external impact – a collision with a meteorite or some kind of debris space. For now, the lack of information makes us consider all possible versions”.
Left: New image of an MMOD strike on Soyuz MS-22 from December. Right: MMOD strike on Atlantis (STS 115) payload bay door radiator. I’m *not* an expert, but there is commonality. pic.twitter.com/oFmWK1pgL4
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) February 13, 2023
A comparison of the damage to Soyuz MS-22 and Space Shuttle STS-115
One possibility is that the two failures are related and actually tied to one or more MMOD (acronym for Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris). This would be a rare but not impossible event. This could explain why the two events occurred in similar areas of the International Space Station and within a short time span. The definitive answer, however, can only take place after a complete analysis of the Progress MS-21 and partly even after the return of Soyuz MS-22 (unmanned).
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