Putin’s Best Weapon: Bidenomics – WSJ

The West recognized that the Russian invasion wasn’t a replay of previous Putin territorial aggressions but was instead the first movement of an imperial ambition that next would threaten the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and—immediately obvious to them—Finland and Sweden.

This military-economic modus vivendi has held for almost a year, with Ukraine’s people proving their willingness to be the tip of the world’s spear against Mr. Putin, who in turn has depended on support from a declared anti-Western alliance that includes China, Iran and North Korea.

The war has reached a tipping point, with Mr. Putin playing tactical-nuclear brinkmanship after Ukraine’s astonishing military this week routed the Russians around the cities of Kherson and Lyman.

Notwithstanding Mr. Putin’s recent defeats and setbacks, it’s possible he could still win without using a tactical nuclear weapon. Deploying a nuke would guarantee an escalation in range and quality of NATO’s military support for Ukraine. But there is another weapon that could wear down the West’s will to continue this necessary fight: a world in recession led by a United States that has forsaken pro-growth economics.

Whether we are heading into a technical recession or stagnant GDP growth between 1% and 2% in 2023 is beside the point. It is time to recognize that spending money on the climate has become such a consuming obsession for the Democratic Party that it is putting at risk the recovery of the U.S. economy and national security.

For the Democrats, saving the planet is World War III, IV and V. No issue or reality, including Mr. Putin’s threat to use tactical nukes in Ukraine, will deter them from demoting every other priority to achieve their climate goals. But the Putin threat—and this week’s firing by North Korea of a ballistic missile across Japan—has pushed climate über alles out of the realm of economic forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office and onto the blazing front burner.

Consider the Biden Democrats’ policies of the past two years. Virtually everything they have done has been targeted at the climate, climate-related infrastructure outlays, increased transfer payments or the half-trillion-dollar student-debt write-off. The pay-fors come primarily through higher taxes. It is difficult to identify any initiative meant to unlock the post-pandemic energies of the broader U.S. economy.

The world’s No. 1 economic issue is inflation. The Democrats just passed the Inflation Reduction Act. Read through the White House fact sheet on the new law and it’s clear that “inflation” was virtually a Trojan horse for pushing through an array of long-sought “clean energy” subsidies and tax credits.

If Europe’s anti-Putin resolve breaks down this winter, it will be because its willingness to oppose the Russian has contributed to destructively high natural-gas prices. Mr. Biden spent the summer blaming high gasoline prices on either Mr. Putin or profiteering U.S. refiners. California Gov.

Gavin Newsom

wants a windfall profits tax on oil companies. The Biden Democrats’ explicit determination to suppress long-term capital investments in fossil-fuel production ensures a near-term energy and security dilemma for the Europeans.

The invasion of Ukraine forced the Europeans to admit their defense spending finally needed to rise. But with energy prices spiking amid an economic slowdown, the chances of follow-through on this long-sought U.S. goal diminish. The irony is that the European Union has backed away partially from the renewables obsession, recently voting that investment in nuclear power and natural gas is “green.” Which it is.

American financial support for Ukraine has been relatively robust so far, but if the U.S. goes into a protracted downturn, pressures will build on both the political left and right for spending “limited resources” on domestic needs. Mr. Putin’s nuclear aggression already has

Elon Musk

tweeting concern about the “great harm” Ukraine’s recent victories may do.

Competing priorities are inevitable, but we proved with the pro-growth policies of the 1980s that they are manageable if the world’s strongest economy leads by maxing out its potential.

Mr. Putin’s advisers can see the evidence that America’s liberals have become wholly transfixed by spending on climate, with little prospect of any significant U.S. pro-growth policies for two more years. They see that Mr. Biden has outsourced responsibility for the economy’s health to the Federal Reserve, whose only viable policy lever now is high interest rates.

If you’re Vladimir Putin, connect the dots: Your most potent weapon isn’t a battlefield nuke. It’s Bidenomics.

Write henninger@wsj.com.