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According to the 2023 report of theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) on the electricity marketthe much desired overtaking renewable energy over coal will take place in 2025. Within that year, renewable ed nuclear energy they will cover the expected growth in global electricity demand almost entirely.
According to IEA forecasts, the demand for electricity will grow on average by 3% per year in the next 3 years, while before the pandemic this growth was around 2.4% per year. Overall, global electricity demand will be around 3 years from now 29,281 TWh. IEA expects clean sources to rise from 8,349 TWh in 2022 to 10,799 TWh in 2025, while coal and natural gas will remain stable, credited respectively to 10,217 and 6,522 TWh. Nuclear energy will also grow, up to 2,986 TWh in 2025, due to the new plants envisaged in India, China and Japan and restarting the reactors in France (details here).
The production of energy from renewables expected for the next 3 years is 2,450 TWh, which is equivalent to 98% of the growth in global demand. More than half of the electricity demand will come from Asia, while a third of energy in 2025 will be consumed in China alone. After all, almost all developed countries will increase the demand for electricity, to replace the fossil fuels in sectors such as transport, heating and industry.
Looking more at the short term, however, such flattering data does not arrive, according to the latest report by Triadthe company that manages the Italian electricity transmission network, relating to production of electricity from renewable sources in Italy. In 2022, the electricity requirement in Italy was equal to 316.8 TWha value down by 1% compared to 2021. Renewable sources covered a total of 31.1% of demand, recording, in particular, a marked decline in hydroelectric production.
In our country in 2022 the production of electricity from renewable sources was in fact attested to 98.4 TWh, 13% less than in 2021. The demand for Italian electricity was met for 86.4% with domestic production and for the remainder (13.6%) with the balance of energy exchanged with foreign countries. Net national production (276.4 billion kWh) decreased by 1.3% compared to 2021 with the following breakdown by sources: growing sources photovoltaic (+11.8%) and thermoelectric (+6.1%); sources are decreasing hydro (-37.7%), wind (-1.8%) and geothermal (-1.6%).
By mixing the IEA and Terna data, we can obtain that the demand for electricity in Italy currently corresponds to less than 1.2% of the global one.
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