Return of the Chinese Long March 5B space rocket: the first data available

Yesterday the spectacular Falcon Heavy rocket was launched by SpaceX (with a military payload). A few hours earlier, however, it had been the turn of another heavy carrier, the Chinese Long March 5B space rocket which successfully brought the last module of the Tiangong space station, called Mengtian, into orbit. The CSS is therefore complete and ready to welcome up to two crews of taikonauts at the same time (up to six people). The docking with the Chinese space station took place at 9:27 pm on October 31, approximately 13 hours after launch. The new module will then be definitively positioned on November 3, making the CSS take a form a “T”.

When such a payload is launched the CNSA (and the human flight division CMSA) must use the carrier Long March 5B which involves the problem of a uncontrolled return. As specified in the past, the risk of carrier debris hitting someone or causing significant damage is not high but not zero either. After all, we have seen it in the case of the return of the rocket launched in July for the Wentian module. While causing no deaths or injuries, the debris fell near villages in Malaysia, Borneo and Indonesia. Here is the first information for the space rocket launched on October 31st.

Chinese space rocket: the first estimates on the reentry

As already written in the previous news, we remind you that the estimates made after several days are necessarily inaccurate. As the time for the actual return of the main stage approaches Long March 5B it will be possible to know both the most precise time and the area of ​​the possible impact.

A first indication was provided by Aerospace Corporation that has indicated as the Chinese space rocket could fall on November 5th at 2:38 am (Italian time). The uncertainty is currently very large considering that we are talking about ± 16 hours. As an example, in the previous prediction two hours before the last one, the estimate was for 3:21 (Italian time). This means that knowing where debris might fall is also very difficult considering the speeds involved.

There mass of the main stage of this vector is equal to 22.5 tons and is therefore large enough to be able to bring fragments to the ground. Its orbits fly over widely populated areas but also parts where only the ocean is present. The main risks derive from areas more resistant to heat and disintegration in the atmosphere such as the lower section (where the motors are located). Aerospace Corporation also estimates that about 5-9 tons of material could reach the surface, enough to cause damage.

The US Space Force 18th Squadron initially identified the main stage of the Chinese space rocket with an orbit of 173 x 314 km. The reentry, however, can vary based on several factors such as propellant left in the tanks, destruction of various components and more. Updates will be provided over the course of the days by various entities and companies.

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