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What precisely is the purpose of Rishi Sunak? Scarcely anything is yet known about his agenda for manoeuvring the country out of its present funk. Many of his pledges from the Conservative leadership campaign in the summer have dissipated, creating a void.
Speaking outside 10 Downing Street for the first time last month, Sunak pledged to revert to the Tories’ 2019 manifesto. That was notable for its “Get Brexit Done” slogan, but had far more depth and ambition than is often acknowledged. With its bold plans for devolution, expansion of the railways and boost for science, it remains the best blueprint for fixing the country.
The manifesto is so tied to Boris Johnson that it is the urtext of Johnsonism: attitudes broadly leaning left on economics, tilting right on social and culture issues. It was written with the “red wall” of pro-Brexit former Labour heartlands front of mind, but managed to unite the wider Tory voting base.
Liz Truss, during her brief calamitous time as leader, repudiated Johnsonism (one of the reasons for her fall). Sunak must now fully embrace it. In Thursday’s Autumn Statement, his priority is to stabilise the nation’s finances and regain market confidence. Yet that cannot be all of what he exists to do.
As a former chancellor, he is well aware that the UK faces grave productivity and growth crises. Too much of Britain suffers from a lack of equality of opportunity. All the ingredients of the 2019 platform — skills, infrastructure, sustainable investment in public services — can reverse the decline. Crucially, it also pledged tax cuts when possible.
Johnsonism without Johnson, however, must adapt to a different reality. Since the manifesto was penned, the UK has suffered two once-in-a-generation events: a pandemic and war on the continent. Both have hit the country’s finances and their effects on the political economy will last for decades.
The ambitions of 2019 cannot survive intact. Some investment will have to be delayed until inflation is lower. The government could not have been clearer that spending cuts are coming. But every cut risks the ire of Tory MPs, all of whom face re-election in as soon as 18 months. Tangibles are their best hope of proving that the promise of 2019 has been delivered.
In every choice Sunak makes in the Autumn Statement, he must put levelling up first. Northern Powerhouse Rail, a project to better link the cities of northern England, is essential. The same is true for buses, vocational education and the NHS. Businesses want levelling up, too — they know society does not stop at the office door.
None of this will be easy. The 80-seat majority of three years ago has withered into a raucous group of Tory MPs lacking the drive and determination for difficult circumstances. Sunak will not be able to command the same level of loyalty as Johnson.
There are key lessons from his predecessor. Johnson was undone by his lack of grip — be it of his Downing Street team, within Whitehall or relations with his MPs. All three are critical for Sunak. His No 10 should be agile but experienced; the efforts against Whitehall inertia robust; his relations with Tories cordial and regular.
For him, the route to remaining in power is slender but obvious. The Tories were already facing a slog to win a historic fifth election; now the only viable path is to hold on to as much of the red wall as possible, while binding together the other parts of the Tory coalition.
The prime minister has a narrow window: he is just about more trusted than his Labour opponent on the economy and the Tories have returned to about 30 per cent in the opinion polls since he became leader. That will not last. He needs a plan to make the most of the his time in No 10. Drifting into managerialism means decline and fall.
sebastian.payne@ft.com
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