Russia Blackmails Europe, Again – WSJ

Gazprom announced Friday it will shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days next week for “unscheduled maintenance.” This is the primary conduit for Russian gas directly into Western Europe, and it already was running at only 20% capacity. Another maintenance shutdown last month raised fears that Russia would cut off Europe’s gas supply before the Continent was ready for such an event. Gas prices on Monday shot up, with the benchmark Dutch futures contract briefly reaching €300 per megawatt hour, according to Factset.

Mr. Putin keeps playing this game because he keeps winning it. European leaders are not capitulating in the way he ultimately hopes they will—pressuring Kyiv to negotiate a ceasefire on Mr. Putin’s terms to end the war Russia started in Ukraine. But the gas stops are straining relations among Western allies. July’s Nord Stream 1 shutdown allegedly occurred because a turbine was trapped in Canada due to sanctions. The solution was for Ottawa to weaken its enforcement of the sanctions enough for Canada to send the turbine back to Germany. Mr. Putin presumably had a good chuckle.

We’ll see what the price turns out to be for ending this maintenance shutdown. Mr. Putin might also figure he can weaken European resolve, and exacerbate political tensions, simply by reminding Western voters early and often how vulnerable they are to energy shortages. This week’s shutdown comes as Berlin is telling households to turn their thermostats down to 66 degrees Fahrenheit this winter to save fuel.

Already there’s speculation about whether this time the gas might stay off for good, the same concern expressed for a time during July’s shutdown. But Mr. Putin doesn’t need to turn off the tap to create political problems in Western democracies, and has no incentive to do so as long as he also can profit from selling gas to Europe. He need only shut the spigot every once in a while to trigger new worries among his adversaries.

The Kremlin will keep this up until Europe develops wider sources of natural gas, including domestic sources, or reinvests in nuclear power. Mr. Putin enjoys this ride, but Europe can choose to hop off at any time.