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Key events
Here is an image of Zelenskiy’s address to Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre.
Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has said that he would only order his troops to fight alongside ally Russia if another country launches an attack against Belarus, the state-run Belta news agency reports.
Reuters reports that Lukashenko, who has repeatedly denied claims from Kyiv and the west that his country could be dragged further into the conflict in Ukraine on the side of Moscow, also said he planned to meet the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Friday.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has thanked Norway on Thursday for agreeing to pass a bilateral aid package of about $7bn over five years.
Speaking to Norwegian lawmakers via video link, Zelenskiy said “the support that Norway is providing for our country sets a precedent for sustainable support”.
The package, which was announced on 6 February, is the largest aid programme Norway has supplied to a single nation.
Norway, a major petroleum exporter, has seen its government income swell to record levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the price of gas sold to Europe soared last year.
You can read more context regarding the aid package below:
A poll has revealed that one year after Russia began its war of aggression against Ukraine, 61% of Europeans believe Ukraine will be successful.
PA reports:
One year into the war in Ukraine, 61% of Europeans believe that the country will prevail. Germans, however, are not quite so optimistic, although a 55% majority believes in a Ukrainian victory. These are the findings of the EU-wide survey conducted by eupinions. It is published in cooperation with the Belgian King Baudouin Foundation.
Europeans are not only betting on victory, 68% also see the war of aggression as a matter affecting them all, because it is an attack on the whole of Europe. Most EU citizens polled also see Ukraine in a battle to defend a set of common values that are shared by all European states.
“This unity is an important signal,” says Isabell Hoffmann, Europe expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung and head of eupinions. “Common values are a cornerstone of the support provided to Ukraine by the EU and its member states. The longer this war drags on, the more important it is for Ukrainians to know that the majority of EU citizens acknowledge their achievements.”
A total of 62% of Europeans agree with the statement that Ukrainians are also fighting for Europe’s freedom and prosperity.
The greatest differences are revealed in the question of the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia. While 40% of respondents consider sanctions to be an effective instrument, the same number consider them ineffective, and around 20% are undecided.
There is, however, a consensus on the question of who is to blame for the war: Here, too, 66% say that Russia bears responsibility for the war.
Also 66% express a sense of unease, stating that the world today is a dangerous place and that it used to be a much better place.
“The level of anxiety is exceptionally high right now. Given the brutality of the war, the toll it’s taking, and the overall level of threat, this is not surprising. What’s really remarkable, however, is that the most anxious are just as supportive of Ukraine as are EU citizens as a whole,” explains Hoffmann.
An estimated 1.1 million people arrived in Germany from Ukraine in 2022, exceeding the number of arrivals from the Middle East around 2015, Germany’s federal statistical office said on Thursday.
According to Reuters, excluding those who returned to Ukraine, immigration from Ukraine came to 962,000 last year, more than the total of 834,000 that came from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq together between 2014 and 2016.
Photograph: APAImages/Rex/Shutterstock
Here is more detail on the wave of missiles launched on Ukraine in the early hours of this morning.
Ukrainian officials said air defences in the south downed eight Kalibr missiles fired from a ship in the Black Sea, but other missiles struck northern and western Ukraine as well as the central regions of Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovograd.
As we’ve reported, one missile struck an industrial site in the western city of Lviv, causing a fire that was brought under control.
Persistent high inflation, fuelled by elevated gas prices, will limit growth recovery in the ex-Soviet bloc this year, Europe’s development bank forecast today.
While wholesale gas prices in Europe have largely returned to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 12 months ago, “in real terms, such levels are comparable to the highs of the 1980s”, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said in a key report.
Founded in 1991 to help former Soviet bloc countries switch to free-market economies, the EBRD has since extended its investment reach to include nations in the Middle East and north Africa.
Presenting its latest forecasts Thursday, the London-based institution said gross domestic product in the bank’s regions was expected to grow 2.1% in 2023, down from an estimate of 3.0% made in September.
GDP output across the three continents is estimated to have grown by about 2.4% last year, “slower than in 2021 as the war on Ukraine took its toll and the post-Covid recovery has mostly run out of steam”.
Russia’s equipment and manpower are likely “significantly depleted”, says the Institute for the Study of War.
In an update posted on its website, it said that, “Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine”.
The Institute also believes that Putin is “unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilisation initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on 21 February.”
Putin is due to address the upper and lower houses of Russia’s parliament next week, a few days before the anniversary of the war.
Chinese diplomat expresses support for contributing ‘towards peace’ in visit to France
French president Emmanuel Macron and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi agreed Wednesday to contribute “towards peace” in Ukraine, Macron’s office said following talks between the two men.
Macron has not hidden his hope that Beijing, which remains an important ally of Moscow and has not condemned the invasion of Ukraine launched nearly a year ago, will pressure Russia to return to the negotiating table.
In Paris on Wednesday, Macron and Wang discussed the war and its “consequences on the most vulnerable countries, particularly in terms of food security and financing capacity,” according to the French presidency.
Both Macron and Wang “expressed the same objective of contributing to peace in accordance with international law”, the Élysée Palace said, without specifying what each country’s contributions would be.
UN general assembly to vote on draft peace resolution next week
The UN general assembly will vote next week on a draft resolution stressing “the need to reach, as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine, Reuters reports.
The vote will happen on the as Ukraine marks one year since Russia’s invasion.
The UN will, not for the first time, demand Moscow withdraw its troops and calls for a halt to hostilities. The 193-member General Assembly is likely to vote next Thursday after two days of speeches by dozens of states to mark the 24 February anniversary of the start of the war.
Ukraine and its supporters hope to deepen Russia’s diplomatic isolation by seeking yes votes from nearly three-quarters of the General Assembly to match or exceed the support received for several resolutions last year.
“We count on very broad support from the membership. What is at stake is not just the fate of Ukraine, it is the respect of the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of every state,” said European Union Ambassador Olof Skoog, who helped lead the drafting of the General Assembly resolution.
Russia’s Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy declined to comment on the draft resolution, which member states received on Wednesday.
Critical infrastructure hit in Russian strikes on western region of Lviv
Critical infrastructure was damaged in Russian strikes on the Lviv region in Ukraine’s west, the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, reported on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties.
“During the air alert, a critical infrastructure object was hit in the Lviv region. There are no victims . The fire was extinguished. Details later. Keep yourselves. Don’t ignore the sirens,” he said.
The strike occurred in the early hours of Thursday morning. It is shortly before 8am in Lviv.
Air raid sirens sounded in cities and towns across Ukraine, but so far the damage in Lviv is the only reported strike.
Welcome and summary
Hello, my name is Helen Sullivan and I’ll be bringing you the latest news from Ukraine.
Air raid alarms sounded in cities across Ukraine early on Thursday morning, as Russian strikes hit critical infrastructure in Lviv, in the country’s west. There were no casualties. We’ll have more on this shortly.
In the meantime, here are the key recent developments:
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Russian forces are mounting “round-the-clock” attacks on Ukrainian positions in the east, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar has said. “The situation is tense. Yes, it is difficult for us,” Maliar posted to Telegram. The situation in Luhansk remained difficult, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office said, without mentioning any retreats in eastern Ukraine.
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Russia is sending heavy equipment and mobilised troops into the Luhansk region but Ukrainian forces continue to defend the eastern Ukrainian region, its governor, Serhiy Haidai, has said. The Russian defence ministry claimed earlier its troops had broken through two fortified lines of Ukrainian defences on the eastern front of Luhansk. It said Ukrainian troops had retreated in the face of Russian attacks, but did not say in which part of the region. Haidai said Russia’s claim that Ukrainian troops had pulled back “does not correspond to reality”.
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The Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has admitted that his mercenary group is facing difficulties in Ukraine. “The number of Wagner units will decrease, and we will also not be able to carry out the scope of tasks that we would like to,” Prigozhin said, amid growing evidence that his political influence in the Kremlin is waning.
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Six aerial targets were spotted over Kyiv during an air alert in the Ukrainian capital, and most were shot down after being engaged with air defences, according to the Kyiv military administration. In a Telegram post, it said the six Russian balloons may have been carrying corner reflectors and reconnaissance equipment. It did not specify when they flew over the capital.
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Ukraine’s allies have said it is unlikely they will be able to supply the number of tanks previously promised. After a meeting in Brussels of western defence ministers, the German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said they would not be able reach the size of a battalion. The bad news comes just after the Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, announced that Russia had begun a renewed offensive in the east in an attempt to take more territory before new western equipment arrives in the spring.
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Nato countries are increasing the production of 155mm artillery rounds and need to ramp up that production even further to help Ukraine, Stoltenberg has said. Stoltenberg said allies have not reached conclusions on a new pledge for defence spending, but it was “obvious that we need to spend more”.
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The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said Ukraine has a “real good chance” of taking the initiative on the battlefield. Speaking after a meeting with Nato defence ministers in Brussels, Austin said that for every system that Nato provided, it would train troops on that system. “We’re laser-focused on making sure that we provide a capability and not just the platform,” he said.
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Russia’s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). That rises to as much as 50% for some of the key tanks used in combat, forcing Russia to reach into its still sizeable cold war-era stocks. Ukraine’s tank numbers are estimated to have increased because of the number it has captured, as well as supplies of Soviet-era tanks from its western allies.
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Ukraine will receive a package of support worth £200m from the UK and other European nations for military equipment, including spare parts for tanks and artillery ammunition, the British government has announced. Britain agreed with the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and Lithuania to send an initial package of support to Ukraine, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said.
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The European Commission has called for a ban on the export of vital technology to Russia worth €11bn to further weaken the Kremlin’s war effort, cementing what EU officials have called the bloc’s toughest-ever sanctions. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU was targeting industrial goods that Russia needed, such as electronic components for drones and helicopters; spare parts for trucks and jet engines; and construction equipment such as antennas or cranes that could be turned to military uses.
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