Stock futures muted as key inflation data looms: Stock market news today

U.S. stock futures were muted Tuesday as key inflation data loomed on the week’s calendar.

Before the market opened, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) were little changed. Futures tied to the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dipped 0.1%.

Government bond yields were lower. The yield on the 10-year note slipped to 3.4%, while rate-sensitive two-year note yields dipped to 3.98% Tuesday morning.

Wall Street kicked off the week on a modestly upbeat note ahead of inflation data out on Wednesday and bank earnings on deck for Friday. The S&P 500 recovered from early losses to finish the session higher, up 0.1%.

Inflation data will dominate the headlines this week, with bank earnings also in sight. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect March’s consumer price index to climb 0.3% from February’s figure, lowering the year-over-year inflation rate to 5.2%.

“This is the week that could tell us that the US consumer is no longer showing resilience and in fact is rather weak; core inflation is making things more expensive, retail sales might show the consumer is tapped out, and the banks might paint a picture that American savings accounts are down and credit card debt is skyrocketing,” OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note.

This comes after the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 236,000 in March, slightly below consensus estimates for 240,000. That’s down from February’s revised 326,000, the slowest since December 2020. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate climbed to a post-COVID era high of 62.6%.

With another strong jobs report in hand, investors are responding by changing their probability of another rate hike from the Fed at their next meeting. Markets are now pricing in a 68% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 0.25% in May, according to data from the CME Group.

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Separately, the minutes from the Fed’s late-March meeting will be released on Wednesday, giving more insight into the central bank’s policy moves.

This week’s main central bank policy decision will come from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Policymakers announced a pause in rate hikes at their meeting in January, and investors are anticipating that rates will remain unchanged.

Elsewhere, global policymakers are set to gather in Washington for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings. As part of the meeting, the IMF will release their latest economic forecasts. Alongside the IMF’s annual meeting, finance ministers and central bank governors will discuss a daunting set of challenges, including slowing global growth and banking sector vulnerability.

Also on Wall Street’s plate this week will be earnings from the bank heavyweights, including Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan (JPM), BlackRock (BLK), and Citi (C) on tap Friday. Banks have had a weak start to the year amid the sector’s turmoil, with the KBW Banks Index (^BKX) down 20% this year.

With the first-quarter season underway, tech stocks have made a sudden turnaround from an ugly 2022. Some analysts continue to see the upside ahead for the sector.

“We continue to believe that Tech will be trading better this year than it did last, but at the same time, think that recent Tech run is getting stretched, in absolute terms,” Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan, wrote in a note to clients. “It is looking overbought, close to all-time highs, with RSIs [relative strength index] that are nearing elevated territory.” And the question remains if tech will keep driving the market higher.

In single stock moves, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) climbed 2% in premarket trading after Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) blew past $30,000. Bitcoin has risen 7.51% in the last seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.

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Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @daniromerotv

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