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Democrat Pat Ryan speaks during a campaign rally in Kingston, N.Y., Aug. 22.
Photo:
Mary Altaffer/Associated Press
Republicans in Congress pondering who will paint their committee Chair portraits might want to hold off. The long-predicted GOP “wave” election may be crashing on an offshore reef, as abortion and
Donald Trump
energize Democrats.
That’s the message Tuesday from New York state, where the GOP lost a special election for Congress in a district where they were favored, continuing a trend of recent underperformance. Republicans may still retake the House in November, but another term for
Nancy Pelosi
as Speaker can’t be ruled out.
Republican
Marc Molinaro
was a strong candidate in New York’s 19th Congressional district. He’s the executive of Dutchess County, a large part of the district in the Hudson Valley north of New York City. But Democrat
Pat Ryan
won the special election with about 51% of the vote by making abortion rights his main issue. Democratic turnout exceeded expectations for a mid-August election.
Democrats also came closer than expected hitting abortion in a special election in New York’s 23rd district, coming within about 6.5 percentage points of Republican
Joseph Sempolinski.
This is a solidly GOP seat that should have been an easy GOP win.
These results are the fourth warning signal in recent weeks for the GOP. The Kansas abortion referendum lost in a rout, and while the GOP won special elections in districts in Minnesota and Nebraska, they did six percentage points worse than the party did in the 2020 presidential race in the districts.
This isn’t the same political climate as last November, when a voter swing of 12 points from 2020 helped the GOP take the governorship in Virginia and come close in New Jersey. Democrats are clearly more eager to vote than a year ago.
One reason is the reaction to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. That’s about all Mr. Ryan ran on in the Hudson Valley. Mr. Molinaro isn’t extreme on abortion, as he made clear he’s personally pro-life but opposes a national ban on abortion. He wants states to decide the issue. But Democrats will fan fears of a national ban from here to November.
Republicans are on the backfoot because they’re talking about abortion as if Roe were still the law, when it was easy to favor a total ban because it didn’t matter. Now the policy stakes are real, and Republicans will have to make clear what specific abortion limits they favor and why. The chance of abortion law changing in New York state is nil, but the GOP is still losing on the issue.
If Republicans shrink from engaging on abortion, then Democrats will define the debate. Republicans can also go on offense by pointing out that many Democrats are extreme in supporting no limits at all on abortion.
Voter turnout will be higher in November than in August, and the natural rhythm of a midterm election may assert itself, which tends to favor the party out of power. But after Dobbs, and with Mr. Trump back at the center of public debate, Democrats have a chance to overcome President Biden’s low popularity. GOP candidates have been warned.
Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Appeared in the August 25, 2022, print edition.
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