The Midterm Elections Reaffirm the American Order

Fifty states held elections for local and national office, and voters in the tens of millions cast ballots and peacefully awaited the results. The candidates certified as victorious by the duly constituted authorities will take their oaths of office on the appointed day. Government of the people, by the people and for the people hasn’t perished from the earth.

America is a paradoxical place. Americans often perceive their polity as fragile and endangered; foreign observers have been predicting the collapse of this improbable republic since the era of silk stockings and powdered wigs. The first verse of the national anthem ends with a question: “O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave / O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?”

Yet no state in modern times can match the American record of almost 250 years of unbroken order under a single constitution even as its power and influence in the international system have continually grown. Those years were anything but calm, and the U.S. has experienced waves of tumult and conflict at home even as the nation’s global standing has been challenged by some of the greatest powers and the most ruthless leaders the world has ever seen. Nevertheless, the American order adapts and endures, and the star-spangled banner still waves.

As

Joel Kotkin

observed in his prescient 1988 book, “The Third Century: America’s Resurgence in the Asian Era,” it is American resilience that matters most to the world. The 19th-century American system, based on a predominantly rural population of property-owning independent farmers, gave way to an urbanized industrial economy. That industrial economy gave way to the still-emerging businesses and technologies of the information revolution. The costs and stresses of that continuing transformation have shaken the American polity to its foundations, but our social and political order still stand.

This mighty fact remains, as it did throughout the tumultuous 20th century, the most important force in global politics. The American republic is secure in its own hemisphere and blessed with immense agricultural fecundity and mineral wealth. It is well situated to withstand the stresses of climate change, and its dynamic population is regularly refreshed with talented immigrants from all over the world. The U.S. combines the economic and social dynamism necessary to remain at the forefront of human progress with the institutional stability required for orderly governance and the projection of national power.

Even in this polarized moment, we are seeing an increasingly focused American response to overseas challenges appear in real time. There is more consensus in American politics over Russia and China policy than on almost any other topic. A Republican-controlled House may demand more oversight of Ukraine spending but is unlikely to force major changes in U.S. policy. Republicans by and large share the Biden administration’s concerns about the need to secure strategically important supply chains against blackmail or boycotts from China, and support for Taiwan is robust in both parties.

Other foreign-policy priorities have similar bipartisan support. The modern rapprochement with India began in the Clinton administration and has since flourished under Republican and Democratic presidents alike. The importance of a close and deepening relationship with countries such as Japan, South Korea and Australia is evident to leaders of both parties and polling reveals that the public shares this view.

Contentious issues remain. Some seem fated to fade, like the Biden administration’s self-sabotaging dedication to resuscitating the Iranian nuclear deal at almost any cost as Iran enters a far-reaching relationship with Russia. Others, like the partisan divides over climate change and border policy, are likely to linger. But the broad pillars of American foreign policy, such as maintaining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization while resisting Russian expansionism in Europe and supporting China’s neighbors against Beijing’s hegemonic ambitions in East and South Asia, reflect the views of both parties and are unlikely to change.

American society has left behind the relatively calm economic and social conditions of the late 20th century to encounter the full disruptive force of the information revolution. But the U.S. was built for stormy weather. Our latest round of hard-fought but peaceful elections, along with a rising consensus for intelligent global engagement, suggest the U.S. is better prepared for the coming storms than some of our adversaries hope.