There will be light at the end of the tunnel

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FIFI PETERS: Let’s move on to developments regarding load shedding. Earlier on today the electricity minister gave his a usual update on the state of affairs concerning load shedding right now, saying that good progress is being made in the energy crisis, and reiterating that South Africa had turned the corner although it was not yet out of the woods.

We have independent energy analyst Chris Yelland for more on this. Chris, thanks so much for your time. Do you agree with the minister’s assessment of things right now on the power situation – that we have turned the corner?

CHRIS YELLAND: Well, we feel every day that there’s an improvement, and the numbers show just that. If you were to look at the energy availability factor last year and compare it to this year, you’ll see that the difference between last year and this year has been reducing. In other words, at the beginning of this year, for the same period as last year, the energy availability factor was much lower this year.

But as months have progressed the energy availability factor this year has improved, to the extent that last week the energy availability factor this year – for that week – was about the same as the same period the previous year. So we are now back to the situation where we were a year ago. In other words, things have improved to the state of what they were last year.

Now, last year wasn’t a good year, but the improvement is very noticeable and we can feel it. So it’s not just what we feel, but it’s also in the numbers.

FIFI PETERS: Last year we essentially had the highest number of power cuts on record. It topped what happened in the previous year. This year, prior to Minister Kgosientso Ramokgopa’s entry into the portfolio of electricity minister, we had worse load shedding than in 2022 – although 2023 is not over.

But I want to circle back to some of the comments that he made, Chris. He essentially implied that load shedding could soon be done in South Africa. I want to know if you agree with that – that it’s something that we could soon be looking at as something of the past?

CHRIS YELLAND: Just to go back to your point, you’re absolutely right. The load shedding dates this year, the number of hours of load shedding this year, is significantly worse than it was last year. But over the period of this year, starting with a very bad situation, it has improved week by week by week – to the extent where the energy availability factor now is the same as it was this time last year.

But for that first period of the year, we were worse off than last year. And there are more hours lost to load shedding this year, today, than the whole of last year.

So things this year are not better than last year, but we have improved – and that’s a good trend. If we carry on improving, then we will see things improving next year.

I do think that there has been a visible difference, a big difference. And I think the minister has followed a very interesting approach which I think is the right approach. That is not to simply focus on one [thing]. So, for example, they’ve [put] a lot of effort into improving the performance of Eskom’s fleet. But at the same time they’re working on a whole lot of new generation opportunities.

For example, the renewable energy IPP [independent power producer] programme has still to bear fruit, but there is some progress there. The private sector involvement in generation capacity has proved very significant at the utility scale, solar PV and wind, as well as medium-sized and commercial and even domestic and residential farming installations. That is also bearing fruit.

The wheeling of power, trading of electricity and self-generation are all coming to the fore and making a big difference.

At the same time, they are looking to delay the shutdown of old coal power stations where possible, and also to use open-cycle gas turbines that are diesel driven – where absolutely necessary.

Now, a combination of all of these factors coming together – the approach that I find interesting – is not just relying on one or other approach. It’s a combined approach of many, many different factors.

FIFI PETERS: Kind of like investments in terms of not putting all your eggs in one basket, diversifying the strategy, it would seem.

Chris, thanks so much for your time. We’ll leave it there. Chris Yelland is an independent energy analyst. We should certainly watch the developments at Eskom and whether the current strategy of course will continue.

We do know that there’s a new chair coming in at the end of the month, as the current chair is marking his leave notice – Mpho Makwana tendered his resignation early on in the month to be replaced by Mteto Nyati. It’ll be an interesting space to watch.