Trump Casts a Shadow Over Arizona’s GOP

Democrats believe they have a realistic chance of winning the governorship, currently in Republican hands, and the majority in the Arizona Senate, or at least an even split. And an outside chance of picking off a Republican congressional seat, offsetting losses elsewhere.

Republicans ought to be winning easily. The GOP still has a 4-point advantage over Democrats in registration. In a midterm year, the advantage in actual turnout should be even higher. The backdrop for this election, in Arizona and elsewhere, is the sense that President Biden and his administration aren’t up to the job. National election trends tend to influence down-ballot races in Arizona.

Yet most of these contested races are regarded as tossups. The reason Republicans aren’t winning in a romp is another national trend: the Trump effect. The Journal has often editorialized about the strategic mistake

Donald Trump

has made in trying to make this election about him, which disfavors Republicans, rather than about the Biden administration’s record, which favors the GOP.

In probably no other state has Mr. Trump succeeded more in making the election about him than in Arizona. The Arizona Republican Party has been entirely remade into the party of Trump. Candidates he endorsed won every contested primary. The nominees for statewide office—Blake Masters for U.S. Senate,

Kari Lake

for governor,

Mark Finchem

for secretary of state and

Abe Hamadeh

for attorney general—all pledged fealty to Mr. Trump’s delusion that the 2020 presidential election and Arizona’s electoral votes were stolen from him.

Mr. Trump’s reach extended down to legislative primaries. The Republican caucuses in next year’s Legislature, whether in the majority or the minority, will be much more MAGA than before.

The only Republican in a pivotal race who isn’t a full-fledged Trumpian is

Juan Ciscomani,

the nominee for an open congressional seat in southern Arizona, where Democrat

Ann Kirkpatrick

is retiring. Mr. Ciscomani comes out of Gov.

Doug Ducey’s

more traditional Republican orbit.

Mr. Trump likes Arizona and often holds rallies here. But he hasn’t fared well with the broader Arizona electorate. In 2012

Mitt Romney

won the state by 9 percentage points. In 2016 Mr. Trump carried it by only 3.5. In 2020

Joe Biden

won by 0.3 point and became only the second Democrat to carry Arizona since

Harry S. Truman.

In 2018, while Mr. Trump was president, Democrats took both of Arizona’s U.S. Senate seats. The last time both of the state’s U.S. senators were Democrats was 1953. Republicans also lost a House seat in 2018. And the GOP margin in the state Legislature, once formidable, shrank to a single member in each chamber. Republicans can no longer win statewide elections in Arizona by turning out the base, holding them and picking up a small slice of independents.

Roughly 225,000 Arizonans voted in 2018 for both Republican Doug Ducey for governor and Democrat

Kyrsten Sinema

for U.S. Senate. These Ducey-Sinema voters now hold the balance of power in close statewide elections, and their ranks have probably enlarged given the trends in both major political parties. A third of the Arizona electorate is registered independent.

Mr. Masters has made some effort, postprimary, to render himself more acceptable to the Ducey-Sinema voters. He has softened his stance on abortion and some other issues. He has even backpedaled a bit on the claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen—reportedly to Mr. Trump’s displeasure.

The rest of the Trump ticket, however, is still running full MAGA. That presents Ducey-Sinema voters with a dilemma they wouldn’t have faced with a more traditional GOP candidate in the mold of Mr. Ducey,

John McCain

or

Jon Kyl.

Hence all the toss-ups.

Democrats hoped the combination of Trump, election denialism and abortion would rebalance an electoral playing field tilted against them. As Election Day approaches, polls have the Republicans gaining some momentum. If the polls are undercounting MAGA voters, Republicans might muddle through and make some gains in the state.

Arizona has been on a roll, attracting new residents and businesses, outperforming most of the country economically. Mr. Ducey has acquired a national reputation as a conservative reformer, principally due to two measures: a 2.5% flat individual income tax and universal Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, which parents can use for a variety of educational purposes, including tuition at private schools.

Those legacy measures probably aren’t at risk. Ms. Lake isn’t the supply-sider Mr. Ducey has been. Her big tax cut idea is to prohibit cities from charging sales tax on food. But she isn’t going to increase individual income-tax rates. And she has run as a resolutely pro-school-choice candidate.

The Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Secretary of State

Katie Hobbs,

says she wouldn’t attempt to repeal the flat tax. And the attempt would be futile anyway. The Arizona Constitution requires a two-thirds vote for the Legislature to raise taxes.

Ms. Hobbs isn’t hot on school choice and would lean toward the traditional public-school monopoly. But by inauguration day, there will be tens of thousands of Arizona families benefiting from the universal vouchers. A fifth of Arizona students are already enrolled in charter schools. The state seems to have achieved critical mass on school choice, with a large enough bloc of beneficiaries to make a reversal politically difficult.

But one part of the Ducey legacy is at risk if Ms. Lake wins. The governor has largely steered clear of cultural controversies. The state was stung by national boycotts over voters’ 1990 rejection of a

Martin Luther King

holiday and SB 1070, the 2010 illegal-immigration law that went to the Supreme Court.

Ms. Lake is all MAGA—sticking it to woke progressives is the point. She has promised curriculum wars and is a Covid vaccine skeptic. She plans to “declare an invasion” at the southern border and says she’ll take over border enforcement—including deportations—from the national government. If Ms. Lake wins, cultural controversies will take center stage, with Arizona again featuring in the national media, including late-night comedy shows. She’s only the nominee, and it’s already happening.

Mr. Robb writes about politics and policy at robertrobb.substack.com. He was a columnist at the Arizona Republic for 23 years.