Will the GOP Win the Senate in the 2022 Midterms?

Republicans benefit from Americans’ dissatisfaction with the status quo. Only 27% think the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while 66% think it’s on the wrong track, according to Wednesday’s RealClearPolitics average. It helps that the issues the GOP is good on—the economy, inflation and crime—are dominant. President Biden’s 43% approval rating gives them a boost. President

Obama’s

was at 46% in 2010 and 42% in November 2014. The Republicans gained Senate seats in both those midterms.

The power of incumbency helps Republicans in Wisconsin and Florida and Democrats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. But in this highly polarized environment, the party that carried the state in the last presidential election may matter more.

This complicates life for both parties. While Republicans are defending open seats in North Carolina and Ohio and Sen.

Marco Rubio

in Florida—states Mr. Trump carried—they’re also defending an open Pennsylvania seat and Sen.

Ron Johnson

in Wisconsin. Mr. Biden won both, albeit by 1.17 and 0.63 percentage points, respectively.

While none of the Democratic seats up for election are in Trump states, three are in states Mr. Biden barely carried: Arizona (he won by 0.31%), Georgia (0.23%) and Nevada (2.39%). Even a modest swing from the presidential election would help Republicans hold their two at-risk seats and flip up to three Democratic ones.

What’s the likelihood of such a swing? In the last four midterms, on average the electorate shifted 4% nationally from the presidential election toward the party out of power—exit polls show a 2-point swing to Democrats in 2006, a 7-point swing to the GOP in both 2010 and 2014, and no swing toward Democrats in 2018. If Mr. Biden’s numbers are any indication, Republicans may get the swing they need.

Democratic money may help mitigate this. According to Open Secrets, a group tracking campaign funds, the party had $1.3 billion in late September to the GOP’s $1.1 billion. Democrats had an even larger financial edge going into the summer, which they spent on positive ads. Republicans, meanwhile, were often stuck in expensive primaries. Despite Democrats’ money, however, races are now turning toward the GOP as Republican candidates and groups boost their spending, the coverage of the Mar-a-Lago search fades, and voters refocus on inflation, jobs and crime.

Republicans are increasingly confident about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Five of the last six polls have Mr. Johnson ahead of Lt. Gov.

Mandela Barnes.

They’re tied in the sixth. In Pennsylvania,

Mehmet Oz

is closing on Lt. Gov.

John Fetterman,

causing the Cook Report to shift the race to a “toss-up.” Both Republicans have risen by focusing on their opponents’ extreme views, especially on crime.

Republican J.D. Vance should hang on in Ohio, bolstered by $35 million in outside spending. (Disclosure: I’m a volunteer adviser to the super PAC doing the spending.) Meanwhile, Democrats are failing to spend the sums needed to contest North Carolina and Florida.

The GOP’s best pickup opportunities are

Adam Laxalt

in Nevada, who’s led in all five September polls, and

Herschel Walker

in Georgia, who’s been virtually tied with his opponent since late August. (Let’s see if his enormous reservoir of goodwill holds after the latest allegation.) Both are helped by strong GOP gubernatorial candidates.

Republicans

Joe O’Dea

in Colorado and

Tiffany Smiley

in Washington state are terrific candidates running in challenging territory. If they keep at it and the midterm swing is big enough, they may pull off a November surprise. Arizona’s

Blake Masters

could be a contender too if he receives financial help from Mr. Trump or tech billionaire

Peter Thiel,

his former employer.

The four most critical contests are the GOP defense of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the Republican offense in Nevada and Georgia. To win, the GOP candidates don’t need to be the most popular, just more in tune with what voters care about. Victory depends on raising the negatives of Democrats on vital issues. Polls say that’s happening. But is there enough time and sufficient resources to get the job done? And who feels truly confident in the polls? Anyone?

The three most plausible scenarios are a 50-50 Senate, 51-49 Republican or 51-49 Democrat. A 52-48 Senate either way is possible but unlikely. My gut tells me the GOP will prevail 51-49 because of the political climate, issues and midterm swing. That may be my natural optimism, but then again, it’s tempered by my Norwegian heritage. Key races are still up in the air. The next 4½ weeks will be rocky, and Nov. 8 a long night.

Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).