2022 Midterms Are the GOP’s Wake-Up Election

The Trump who came down the escalator in 2015 didn’t have many heavyweights in tow. It took him through the 2016 convention to consolidate party support, and through the autumn to pull together the base. But that was then. Today’s Mr. Trump is a former president, the leader of the Republican Party, a man who lost in 2020 by a mere 44,000 votes across three states. Other ex-presidents have sought to reclaim the office, and their prior perch meant that all began with the support of a significant mass of party bosses, money men and elected officials.

The scene at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday was the exact opposite. Reporters spotted Rep.

Madison Cawthorn,

the controversial first-termer who lost a North Carolina GOP primary in May. That was about it for the elected class. Smiling for the cameras were

Roger Stone

and MyPillow CEO

Mike Lindell.

Also missing? In 2015, Mr. Trump was introduced by his daughter Ivanka, who went on to serve as a central adviser in the White House and one of the 2020 campaign’s most sought-after surrogates. As the Mar-a-Lago festivities unfolded, Ivanka made her own announcement on Instagram: She won’t be involved in his campaign or “in politics” going forward.

A handful of Trump political associates showed up: Russell Vought, once at the Office of Management and Budget; campaign guru Jason Miller; onetime press secretary

Hogan Gidley.

But most of the Trump White House, cabinet and agency world was silent, or dismissive. ABC, NBC and

CBS

stuck with their previously scheduled programming. Fox and CNN showed the announcement but cut away before the speech was over.

The bundlers are bailing out.

Blackstone

CEO

Stephen Schwarzman,

a megadonor, said this week he’d be supporting one of a “new generation of leaders” in the GOP presidential primary. Citadel hedge-fund founder

Ken Griffin,

with a betting man’s bluntness, said it was time for the party to move on from a “three-time loser.”

Ronald Lauder

says he’s out. Businessman

Andy Sabin,

who put money into Trump 2020, declared this week that he wouldn’t give Mr. Trump a “[expletive] dime.”

Prior to the election, Republicans routinely said yes when asked if they’d support another Trump run. But endorsements were vanishingly thin Wednesday. They included maybe half a dozen sitting or newly elected House members, including Reps.

Marjorie Taylor Greene,

Paul Gosar

and

Elise Stefanik.

One or two statewide officials. Defeated Arizona gubernatorial candidate

Kari Lake.

Diamond and Silk.

But surely all those rethinking Mr. Trump are just RINOs and “establishment” losers? Nope. A poll taken after the election of Texas GOP primary voters found they now supported Florida Gov.

Ron DeSantis

(43%) by 11 points over Mr. Trump (32%). Polls of Republican voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida and Georgia—taken both before and after the election—also show Mr. Trump trailing. Mr. Trump has a problem up and down the line.

“When they cross Trump, they lose, and that’s not going to change,” declared a Trump spokesman in response to Club for Growth polling evidence that he’s weak. Only that’s exactly what has changed. What kept the party united behind Mr. Trump—through his antics, his outbursts, Jan. 6—was the fear that only he could command the base, and only he could win elections. But this time it was failing to cross Mr. Trump—bowing to his primary picks—that lost the GOP winnable seats.

Mr. Trump’s own announcement speech was an acknowledgment he has a problem. After insisting that his endorsed candidates repeat his claims of 2020 election fraud, which turned off many independent and moderate voters, he himself on Tuesday made no mention of that accusation. The speech was an attempt to look forward and promise a brighter American future, and Mr. Trump largely (and uncharacteristically) stayed on teleprompter. This inspired South Carolina Sen.

Lindsey Graham

to tweet that “if President Trump continues this tone and delivers this message on a consistent basis, he will be hard to beat.” That’s a yuge if.

And that’s Mr. Trump’s other problem: His party, and a lot of his base, knows him. News reports say the campaign wants to run like it did in 2016—positioning Mr. Trump as an outsider, an underdog. But Mr. Trump is neither of those anymore. Back then, voters didn’t know what to expect and took a chance on a guy who came across as a fighter. They know now, and a lot are weary.

Especially when they see a new generation of Republicans who also have the fight, if not the drama. Mr. Trump jumped in early to clear the field, to create a sense of inevitability. But what the midterms taught Republicans is that Trump victories aren’t inevitable—and may be things of the past. A wake-up call, indeed.

Write to kim@wsj.com.