A Donald Trump Preview of the 2024 Presidential Election

It’s no secret that Mr. Trump might respond to being denied the 2024 nomination by blowing the party up. In his answer to the first question of the first GOP debate during his first run, he alluded to this possibility when he declined to promise to support whoever emerged the Republican nominee. The question became academic after he went on to mow down all his opponents, one by one.

The threat is still out there, but this time Mr. Trump might be misreading his own supporters. The first sign came two Saturdays ago in Latrobe, Pa. Mr. Trump was there to fire up support for his candidates—Doug Mastriano for governor,

Mehmet Oz

for Senate—who would lose their races a few days later. Characteristically, the big news out of that rally was the new put-down he unveiled for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: “Ron DeSanctimonious.”

Probably Mr. Trump expected a backlash. What he could not expect was how much of it came from voters who’d pulled the lever for him in 2016 and 2020 but didn’t appreciate an unprovoked attack on a fellow Republican and successful governor who had stood firm against many of the same liberal forces bitterly opposed to Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump’s decision not to repeat the put-down the next day at a rally in Florida suggested he recognized the blunder. Even so, he was back trying to diminish Mr. DeSantis as late as election eve, telling reporters that if the governor were to seek the 2024 GOP nomination, he would release dirt on him.

Then came Election Day. The predicted red wave never materialized, and Trump-endorsed candidates were often outperformed by non-Trump Republicans running in the same state, suggesting that while the former president’s support might prove a boon in a GOP primary, it could be an anchor in the general. Even J.D. Vance, a Trump-backed candidate in Ohio who won his Senate race by more than 6 points, still ran far behind Republican Gov.

Mike DeWine’s

25-plus-point margin of victory.

It’s telling that the bitterest pill for Mr. Trump isn’t the losses of Republicans he’d backed, like Mr. Oz. It’s that Mr. DeSantis, who squeaked into office in 2018, won re-election by 20 points and carried majority-Latino Miami-Dade County. This was an encouraging victory all Republicans cheered.

Well, all but one. On Thursday Mr. Trump let rip a rambling screed on his Truth Social site, calling Mr. DeSantis an “average REPUBLICAN governor with great Public Relations.” The post also revived his DeSanctimonious taunt. A day later Mr. Trump would also snipe at Virginia Gov.

Glenn Youngkin.

All this was probably inevitable. The good news for Republicans is that it is occurring now rather than in 2024. The somewhat better news is that the blowback to Mr. Trump’s attacks on proven Republican leaders this time isn’t being led by Never Trumpers and anti-Trumpers. Instead much of it is coming from people who had supported Mr. Trump through thick and thin.

The timing is also off. When Mr. Trump first teased that he would make a “big announcement” Tuesday night, a Republican wave was still the received wisdom. But instead of a victorious backdrop, Mr. Trump will now announce as Democrats have kept their majority in the Senate and still have a small shot at keeping the House.

Mr. Trump is banking on his supporters sharing his priority for defeating non-Trump Republicans in primaries even when it means his candidates will ultimately lose to a Democrat. In other words, the bet is that their loyalty is all to him. But that too isn’t as clear as it once might have been.

In its last poll before the election, NBC reported that 62% of GOP voters consider themselves more supporters of the party, against 30% who said they consider themselves more supporters of Mr. Trump. This is a huge reversal from before the 2020 election, when it was 58% to 34% in Mr. Trump’s favor.

Whatever he says Tuesday night, Mr. Trump won’t bring down potential rivals such as Messrs. DeSantis and Youngkin with insults. Not only do these governors have demonstrated records as fighters, they are wise enough not to respond in kind. And they are well aware that the only people rooting for that kind of mud fight are Democrats and their friends in the press.

Write to mcgurn@wsj.com.