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LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) – The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Wednesday forecast a 60,000-tonne global cocoa deficit in the 2022/23 season (October-September).
The inter-governmental body, issuing its first forecast for the current season, saw global production rising by 4.1% to 5.02 million tonnes with grindings falling a marginal 0.6% to 5.03 million.
The ICCO, in a quarterly update, trimmed the size of an estimated global deficit for the 2021/22 season to 287,000 tonnes from 306,000 tonnes seen previously.
The projected deficit for the 2022/23 season was slightly smaller than a median forecast of 70,000 tonnes in a Reuters poll issued last month.
Top grower Ivory Coast was forecast to have a rise in production of 109,000 tonnes to 2.23 million despite a slight year-on-year decline in port arrivals.
The ICCO said there had been unusual trade flows to neighbouring countries.
“Currently, the fixed farm gate price in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) is estimated to be $247 per tonne lower than the estimated farm gate prices in neighbouring countries. These margins are incentivising cross-border flows of Ivorian beans,” the ICCO said.
Ghana’s cocoa production was forecast to expand by almost 9% in the 2022/23 season to 750,000 tonnes.
Global grindings were expected to fall by 30,000 tonnes in the 2022/23 season with decreases for Europe and the Americas partially offset by rises in Africa and Asia.
“With inflation on the rise and central banks worldwide increasing interest rates to contain price hikes, the grindings forecast for the current season is shrouded in uncertainty,” the ICCO said.
The quarterly update, however, noted that most exporting countries were providing incentives to promote local processing of cocoa beans.
“Though cocoa demand in developed economies remains uncertain, processing at origin is on the rise and will likely be the game changer for global grindings,” the ICCO said.
Ivory Coast is expected to be world’s number one grinder in 2022/23 at 715,000 tonnes followed by the Netherlands at 620,000 tonnes, the report added.
(Reporting by Nigel Hunt, Editing by Louise Heavens and Barbara Lewis)
((nigel.hunt@thomsonreuters.com; +44 20 7542 8421; Reuters Messaging: nigel.hunt.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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