Mortgage rates took a stellar performance last week — especially if you stopped paying attention on Thursday. At the time, it was the best weekly decline in rates since early November, 2022.
Things began to change on Friday after a resilient performance in the jobs report – one of the most important pieces of economic data for the markets on any given month. By the time today’s mortgage rate offers were published, lenders had finished what they started on Friday. Bottom line: A big chunk of the correction is gone and the average borrower is back in the 6-year median, for a consistent 30-year peak.
There was no new data behind today’s move. Really, it was as simple as the mortgage market catching up with the bond market (bonds ultimately set the rate movement).
The next big flashpoint will be Wednesday morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) – the most important monthly inflation report, and at times more important than the jobs report in the hyperinflationary environment of the past few years. While there’s no way of knowing whether the report will be good or bad for rates, nothing else on the calendar this week has the potential to elicit such a reaction.