Mortgage rates have put in a solid performance so far this week, with a substantial decline to their lowest levels in months as of yesterday afternoon. Thursday was a bit different as the underlying bond market began to shift gears ahead of Friday’s significant jobs report.

Officially known as the “employment situation,” the jobs report is the most important piece of economic data scheduled for interest rates in any given month. In times of high inflation, it may share the crown with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but usually this means we have two really important reports in close proximity (CPI is next Tuesday) with one dominating the other. instead of.

Simply put, if these two reports send a similar message to the data already in place this week, it will drive rates even lower—likely pushing the average 30yr fixed rate for innocent scenarios into the high 5% range. I will break

Note: This is not a prediction at all, but just one of the “if/then”. Things could just as easily have gone the other way. In other words, if the jobs report is stronger than expected and inflation (the CPI measures inflation) is higher, rates will almost certainly bounce off the current low and head back toward 7%.

Closer to 7% it would depend on how robust the data was. We’ll cross that bridge if we reach it. For now, the only high probability bet is to say that volatility is a big risk tomorrow and Tuesday.


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