Economic data is one of the most basic and reliable inputs to the bond market. The bond market, in turn, dictates the day-to-day interest rate movement. In general, weak economic data drives rates down and that was it in a nutshell today.

Weekly jobless claims hit their highest level since 2021 and the bond market reacted quickly. It wasn’t a huge move in the big picture, but enough to counteract the jump to higher rates seen on Wednesday.

Larger volatility remains a major risk around next week’s Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday and the Fed announcement on Wednesday.


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