Pd: he could have won the elections, allying himself with 5 Stelle and Calenda

The methodological premise of this article is that in politics, two plus two is not four. Or, to put it intelligibly, at elections the alliance between two parties does not necessarily translate into the sum of their respective percentages. Because, to cite the Italian case, there may be the elector of the 5 Star Movement who does not vote on the list today led by Giuseppe Conte if allied with the Democratic party. As well as the voter who chooses to vote for the coalition, convinced that a separate race results in a defeat, as it actually was, and so it might be worth it.

The numbers coming out of the polls, however, allow you to play a game. That is to try to sum up the results of the main forces that refer in different ways to the progressive area and understand how it would have gone in the event of an alliance. A game up to a certain point, then, given that the secretary of the Democratic Party is still after the vote Enrico Letta he claimed the wide field, or the alliance of democrats, 5 Star Movement and third pole (ie Italia Viva and Action), as the only solution to win the elections.

To understand if the number one of the Nazarene is right, Wired took into account icsingle-member ollegi of the Chamber, making three maps. The first it shows who actually got the most votes between center-right and center-left. The second how it would have gone if the latter had allied itself with the third pole, as indeed it had done for a few days in August. The thirdfinally, with the wide field.

Attention: we are of little interest here who actually won the college. In the south there are some where the 5 Star Movementin South Tyrol won the Svpto Messina the list De Luca Mayor of Italy. The point is instead to understand who got the most votes between the two main coalitions. This is because in a context that does not provide for separate voting, the result of the uninominal probably also reflects that of the proportional one. And so it gives us an idea of ​​how the elections could have gone, always remembering that an alliance does not translate into the sum of the votes of the individual parties.

The real situation

The uninominal center-right coalition has taken more votes than the center-left one practically everywhere: they are just 17 on 147 those in which Pd, Italian left, greens, + Europe And Civic engagement they managed to prevail. Here is the situation seen on a map.

Some boarding school straddling theTuscan-Emilian Apenninesthe cities of Milan, Turin, Rome And Naplesthe autonomous region of Valle d’Aosta andSouth Tyrol. It is only here that, in autonomy, the center-left coalition has managed to prevail. What if it allied itself with the third pole?

The alliance with the third pole

Always remembering that it is not said that all the voters who voted individually center left and third pole they would have supported them even in the event of an alliance, this is how it would have gone in the single-member constituencies of the Chamber by adding up the consents actually obtained on Sunday 25 September.

Something actually changes. The number of colleges in which the center-left would have obtained more votes than the center-right increases. As far as probably not enough to overturn the final outcome: 32 the deputies elected to the majority by a potential alliance between Democrats and the third pole, against the 115 of the center-right. That is to say 15 more than the real figure.