Rates Rebounding Aggressively After Hitting Lowest Levels Since April



Mortgage rates leapt higher at a record pace today–a statement that sounds a bit scarier than it really is by the time we consider the context.

The first part of the context is the limitations of day-over-day record keeping for rates.  Our data only goes back to 2008.  There were likely worse individual days in the 20-30 years before that, even if there weren’t very many.

The second part of the context is that we were just able to witness the friendly version of the same development last Thursday (i.e. record-setting DROP for an individual day).  

All of the above is a product of the same environment where the underlying mortgage bond market is making it much easier for rates to make big moves.  (If you didn’t catch the deep dive down that rabbit hole, here it is: The Real Reason Mortgage Rates Are Dropping at a Record Pace).

Unique market environment considerations aside, today’s bond market movement was still fairly abrupt.  Bonds are the key driver of mortgage rates.  All other things being equal, when demand for bonds decreases, rates rise.

Demand dropped quickly today after several comments from Fed speakers suggested the Fed is far from declaring any sort of turning point in the battle against inflation.  Those who tuned into Fed Chair Powell’s press conference last week may have come away with a slightly more equivocal outlook.

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There was also a glut of new corporate bonds hitting the market over the past 48 hours.  These decrease demand among bond buyers simply by spreading it out to a larger menu of potential investments.  

Above all else, bonds/rates improved so much over the past few weeks (and especially over the past 3 days) that risks were increasing for a bounce.  This is that bounce.  There’s no telling exactly how long it will last or how big it will be, but the incoming economic data will required for a complete answer to those questions.



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