Russia’s Near NATO Miss in Poland

Russia denied attacking Poland. And on Wednesday NATO Secretary General

Jens Stoltenberg

said he had “no indication” that the incident in Przewodów “was a deliberate attack.” He added that NATO’s “preliminary analysis” suggests it “was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks.”

Ukrainian President

Volodymyr Zelensky

disputed that assessment Wednesday, saying he had “no doubt that it was not our missile.” Forensic analysts will have to determine where the munition originated and how it ended up in Poland.

No one wants to see the war escalate into a direct NATO-Russia conflict, and it’s understandable that the U.S. and Mr. Stoltenberg worked to claim anxieties. But the event is hardly reassuring because the fault is still Russia’s. The Institute for the Study of War, which tracks the conflict, says Russia sent some 100 missiles into Ukraine on Tuesday, many at Lviv, some 40 miles from Poland.

Since Feb. 24 the Russians have repeatedly conducted attacks close to the Polish border. That includes a deadly missile strike in March on the Yavoriv military training center in Ukraine, some 10 miles away from Poland. Russian munitions aren’t famed for precision, so each such strike is a reckless act that runs the risk of hitting NATO territory.

At a minimum Poland is within its rights to invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty. That provision allows any member to bring an issue of concern for discussion by the North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s principal political decision-making body. Poland may be under quiet diplomatic pressure not to do so because Western officials want to avoid stirring up public fear of a wider conflict.