The analysis for for 4-3-22 has been written in a different format as it is hard to capture what happened on that day when I was not able to attend the session in live mode. Also, I had several thoughts & observations that I wanted to share so I feel this is the best way to do so. 

Nifty EOD 16245 / down by 252 or 1.53%
EOD 34407 / down by 536 or 1.54%
SGX Nifty as on 5-3 morning 18143 or down by 100 points
FII/DII – -2,892 Crores
As written in the early hours of 4-3

ended on 3-3 at 16408 signaling a gap-down open and that makes me think if Bank Nifty may retest the 34000 support area. If that happens, Nifty too may revisit the new swing low around 16200. 

I also feel that if the above happens, we may witness a sharp bounce back from the lows if supported by the global cues otherwise with the ending 3-3 above 30, Nifty may end up breaching 16000 too.

That I am once again wondering about the portfolio size of the FIIs given that they have been consistently selling throughout the financial year. And I am also wondering for how long DIIs would be able to keep buying? It’s more a case of FII portfolio size Vs the deep pockets of the DIIs. 

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Now, I am also getting a fair idea of why some MF schemes perform better than the index. The reason is that DIIs keep buying with every dip even when a retail investor may not be comfortable buying on the way down or what is proverbially known as “catching the falling knife”. 

Written as on 5-3

The global markets remained under pressure and the US VIX ended at 31+ signaling continued fear related to the ongoing situations. 

And our indices opened lower and then drifted towards the path of least resistance which was the downside.

As mentioned in an earlier para, Nifty was attracted towards 16000 as it made a low of 16133 and Bank Nifty made yet another dash towards 34000.

The indices ended lower but both the indices ended almost aligned at 1.53%. I now feel that the indices may have reached or are closer to the lower base. 

The SGX Nifty ended the week at 16143 indicating a gap-down opening. If the indices have indeed reached their respective lower base zones, I feel there may be a couple of sharp download-shake-out moves where Nifty may test 15800-900 and Bank Nifty may fall 1200-1500 points in a fast-paced move. 

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Depending on where the situation of the global market is the exact timing of this melodrama may be scheduled. 

Now I have also heard many alert traders/investors wanting the prices to fall further so that they may book short/long term losses to offset the gains made when things were going good.

I take this as another indication of the indices reaching the lower base camp. And when a majority is unprepared, the indices may lift-off leaving many gasping and stranded on their respective chosen Priceline.

Video link:
https://youtu.be/4FfgquVPjQw


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