Vance, Oz and Trump’s &89 Million Debt to McConnell

Donald Trump’s endorsement helped both win their GOP primaries, but then the two struggled to raise money for the general election as they trailed their opponents in the polls. Getting them to November required massive spending from the dreaded Republican establishment. Mr. Trump will crow if both candidates win Tuesday, but the man who saved the day is the Senate leader he calls the “Old Crow.”

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Super Pac aligned with Mr. McConnell, invested more than $32 million in the Ohio Senate race. That was 77% of all the GOP’s campaign media spending in the Ohio race after Aug. 14. The figure for Pennsylvania is even bigger, $56.7 million, when counting spending by two related groups, American Crossroads and Faith & Power Pac. That was 62% of all GOP media spending in that race after Aug. 14.

To put that $88.7 million in perspective, look at how much the two candidates raised. Mr. Vance must not like fundraising. As of the Oct. 19 reporting deadline, he had pulled in only $12 million, according to Open Secrets, while his opponent, Democratic Rep.

Tim Ryan,

had raised $47 million. The gap in Pennsylvania between Mr. Oz and Democrat

John Fetterman

was also large. As of Oct. 19, Mr. Oz had raised $40 million to Mr. Fetterman’s $57 million.

Ohio is trending Republican and Gov.

Mike DeWine

is cruising to re-election. But Mr. Vance, who disdained the GOP establishment during the primaries, would have had a hard time winning in November without the establishment’s spending to change Mr. Ryan’s image.

The polling bears that out. In late July, Mr. Vance had a much higher unfavorable rating in public opinion polls (40%) than did Mr. Ryan (22%). That changed as the Senate Leadership Fund ads informed voters of Mr. Ryan’s record as “Taxing Tim” and voting with President Biden. By the end of the campaign, Mr. Ryan’s unfavorable rating had climbed to 41% while Mr. Vance’s was 44%. The head-to-head ballot test didn’t shift in Mr. Vance’s favor until mid-October.

Mr. Trump’s political operation provided little air cover for either candidate. The former President is a fundraising juggernaut. But the Super Pac called Make America Great Again Inc., as of the latest data, had dropped only $2.3 million in Ohio and $3.4 million in Pennsylvania, Open Secrets says. Mr. Trump loves to join his endorsed candidates for rallies that put him in the spotlight. But he’s a miser with donor money.

Mr. Trump will take credit if Messrs. Vance and Oz win, and he’ll never acknowledge the decisive role played by Mr. McConnell and his network of donors. But raising money is crucial in politics to educate voters, especially for Republicans who are also running against the media in most states.

Politics is a team sport, and the money the McConnell network had to devote to saving GOP seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania could have been spent against vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Washington and Colorado.

Tiffany Smiley

and

Joe O’Dea,

the GOP nominees, are excellent candidates who could have used $50 million in those Democratic-leaning states.

With the Senate split 50-50, any one seat could determine the majority, and even 52 seats provides a measure of majority comfort if someone becomes ill or resigns unexpectedly. Mr. Trump will never forgive Mr. McConnell for criticizing him after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and he’s lobbying Senators to oust him as leader. But those Senators know who raised and spent enough money to rescue the candidates Mr. Trump lifted to the nomination but then left to fend for themselves.