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By Roberto Samora and Marcelo Teixeira
SAO PAULO, Aug 19 (Reuters) – The Brazilian government on Friday sharply reduced its projection for the sugarcane crop in the current season, citing unfavorable weather and a large reduction in planted area as farmers switch to more profitable crops.
Government agency Conab said in its second projection for the 2022/23 season that it now expects sugarcane production of only 514 million tonnes in the main center-south (CS) sugar belt, compared to the 539 million tonnes it had projected in April.
The number is even smaller than the 2021/22 crop which was impacted by the harshest drought in the country in 90 years (525 million tonnes). It would be the smallest crop in more than 12 years.
Most independent analysts still see Brazil’s center-south crop at around 545 million to 560 million tonnes. Broker StoneX, for example, projected the CS cane crop at 557.5 million tonnes in July.
With the sharp cut in sugarcane volumes, the government’s view for CS sugar production went down to 30.7 million tonnes this season, 5.7 million tonnes less than was seen in April and below the 32 million tonnes last year.
Conab said that along with drier-than-normal weather, a reduction in planted area is to blame for lower sugarcane production. It said planted area fell 3.2% in CS, to 240,000 hectares (593,052 acres). Farmers are mostly switching to corn and soybeans, even in the main sugar producing state of Sao Paulo.
CS cane-based ethanol production was seen at 23.48 billion liters from 24.26 billion liters last season. Corn-based ethanol production is seen growing to 4.52 billion liters from 3.47 billion liters.
Overall for Brazil, including data from north/northeast, Conab sees a total cane crop of 572.9 million tonnes and sugar production at 33.89 million tonnes, 3% less than 2021/22.
If confirmed, Brazil would fall to the number 2 sugar producer in the world, behind India.
(Reporting by Roberto Samora and Marcelo Teixeira; additional reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Steven Grattan and Chris Reese)
((marcelo.teixeira@tr.com; +1 332 220 8062; Reuters Messaging: marcelo.teixeira.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net – https://twitter.com/tx_marcelo))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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