Indices Stage a Strong Comeback but India VIX at 27+


EOD 16345/+331/+2.07%
EOD 33815/+657/+1.98%
27.57/-3.92%
FII DII data -1,543 Crores 
at 1830h +48

As observed on 8-3 late evening

The fact that FIIs increased their selling by around 1,000 Crores means that tomorrow as well selling is likely to rule for the AM session. DIIs also intensified the buying but still fell short of the expectations.

SGX Nifty at 2115h is down 107 points so we are likely to witness the usual dramatics in action. 

Late night Development

Oh, just 15 minutes to midnight, and I was informed that there was some positive news on the war situation and I responded stating SGX may be up 200 points and then I checked and it was 180+. So, from -108 to +180, all this while the Indian participants couldn’t play an active role.

Now the situation changes, however, I am still certain that FIIs may still invoke their might and try to unsettle recovery. Let’s see how it plays out tomorrow.

First half an hour

From a good positive opening to a rocky start as Nifty immediately nosedived as the FIIs would have used this to sell on high approach. 

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Whereas Nifty Future was trading at a discount of 5-10 points to the spot, Bank Nifty future was trading at a premium of 70+ points. And within a few minutes, the Nifty futures almost got aligned. 

I am not sure if the underperforming Bank Nifty is likely to witness a strong upmove or there’s something else in store.

1045h

Today’s star performer is Reliance (NS:), up 3% followed by Infosys (NS:) 2%, and TCS (NS:) 0.6%. These 3 have fired up Nifty to be at 130+ points while Bank Nifty is struggling to be in the positive terrain.

The big change is that India VIX is down 3.5%.

1300h

The indices made a strong recovery as Nifty crossed 16300 +285 points & Bank Nifty crossed 33600 +400 points as all heavyweights except Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. (NS:) made strong positive moves. Kotak Bank also recovered but is trading below the previous close. 

Reliance & Nifty are now joined by the HDFC (NS:) twins followed by TCS. However, India VIX is once again picking up. 

As of now, global cues are also positive so looks like we may end in the green. Though FIIs may get back to their activities as the EOD comes closer.

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1455h

Bank Nifty 33950+ up by 800+ points & Nifty up by 400+ points at 16400+.

What a roaring move by the indices! All index heavyweights including Kotak Bank in green ranging from 0.5% Kotak Bank to 5.6% Reliance. However, India VIX is still above 27 which is not a comforting sign as the moves are quite pacy.

A weekly close above 34800 & above 16600 would be a good set-up for the indices to resume from they left. 

In conclusion

The indices have rejected 34000 & 16400 levels for now as immediate selling was triggered. 

Tomorrow is the weekly expiry so the usual drama is likely to unfold.

So these two resistance levels are crucial to reach up to the next higher levels.

Nifty Support 16000
Bank Nifty Support 33000

As long as these levels are held on, we may just be able to sail through even though the ride may be bumpy. 

Video link:
https://youtu.be/GGkjKZ2Inr0



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